关键词: 红彩真猎蝽, 红彩真猎蝽, 斜纹夜蛾, 烟青虫, 烟蚜, 选择偏好

Abstract: Southern rice black-streaked dwarf disease is a kind of important viral disease, which outbroke recently in south china rice growing region, and occurred in many parts of our country. In order to research the dynamic epidemic law and establish the prediction model about occurrence trend, the author analyzed the meteorological factors and insect quantity in developing process of southern rice black-streaked dwarf disease by the methods of correlation analysis, stepwise regression analysis and path analysis. The result showed that both the meteorological factors from May to July and the insect quantity were positively correlated with the occurrence area. The correlation coefficient reached a significant level or more. Path analysis showed that the product of the imaginal rice planthoppers’ quantity in the first ten days of August and the precipitation from June 21st to July 10th, which was defined as X’3, had the most significant direct impact on occurrence area, the coefficient reached 0.9318. There were other impact factors, such as the product of the imaginal rice planthoppers’ quantity in the first ten days of August multiplied by the number of rainy days from June 21st to July 10th, which was defined as X’4, the relative humidity in May, which was defined as X’1, and the relative humidity from May 1st to May 20th , which was defined as X’2. All of them had an indirect impact on the occurrence area. The prediction model was established by stepwise regression analysis, and the prediction equation was given as Y=-2.521645+0.017466X’1+0.014457X’2+0.000050X’3-0.000296X’4, in which, y meant occurrence area, X’1 ,X’2, X’3 and X’4 were defined above. In 2017, the prediction equation was applied to predict the insect occurrence area, then there was only a very small error between prediction value and measurement value, and the high-precision prediction was obtained. The prediction equation can be applied to predict the occurrence area of southern rice black-streaked dwarf disease which outbreak in second rice growing season in Huazhou, and even in the western part of Guangdong province.