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中国农学通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (18): 103-109.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb18120118

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化背景下羌塘自然保护区冰雹日数时空变化特征

加勇次成1, 次旺顿珠2, 措姆2   

  1. 1.西藏自治区人工影响天气中心;2.西藏自治区气候中心
  • 收稿日期:2018-12-28 修回日期:2019-05-22 接受日期:2019-05-22 出版日期:2019-07-01 发布日期:2019-07-01
  • 通讯作者: 加勇次成
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“羌塘国家级自然保护区气候变化及其对生态环境的影响”(41765011);高原遥感应用技术创新团队资助。

Hail Days in Qiangtang National Nature Reserve of Tibet: Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics Under the Background of Climate Change

  • Received:2018-12-28 Revised:2019-05-22 Accepted:2019-05-22 Online:2019-07-01 Published:2019-07-01

摘要: 为了解羌塘自然保护区冰雹的气候特征,从而提出相应的防雹减灾对策与方法,以减少冰雹灾害带来的损失,利用羌塘自然保护区1971—2017年5个气象站的逐日冰雹日数资料,采用趋势分析,Mann-Kendall法和Morlet小波分析等方法,分析气候变化背景下羌塘自然保护区近47年冰雹气候特征。结果表明:自然保护区各站冰雹日数为1.6~28.1天,总体东多西少分布态势。冰雹发生主要集中在6—9月,以8月最多;冰雹一天之内多发生12:00—18:00,持续时间多为1~10 min。近47年保护区冰雹日数呈减少趋势,平均每10年减少4.0天,尤其是申扎减幅最大,为-7.0 d/10a。20世纪70—90年代为冰雹多发期,21世纪前10年明显偏少。M-K检测显示,保护区年、夏季和秋季冰雹日数发生了气候突变,显著下降的突变时间出现在2000s年代中后期。保护区春、秋两季冰雹日数都存在着3a的显著周期,而春季冰雹日数还存在5a和8a的显著周期。冰雹日数减少与平均气温显著升高、气温日较差变小有关。

关键词: 核桃, 核桃, 脂肪酸, 变异分析, 相关分析, 通径分析, 主成分分析, 聚类分析

Abstract: In order to further understand the climatic characteristics of hail in Chang Tang National Nature Reserve Region of Tibet (CTNNRR), put forward some disaster reduction countermeasures and reduce the hail disaster losses, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of hail days in CTNNRR from 1971 to 2017 was analyzed with trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test method and Morlet wavelets analysis method based on the hail data of the 5 meteorological stations in CTNNRR. The results shows that: On a multi-year average, the hail days ofSeachSstation were 1.6-28.1 days in CTNNRR, and the distribution was decreasing from western to eastern. Temporally, the hail occurred mainly from June to September, most frequent in August, and the hail occurred mostly during 12 to 18 o"clock with duration of 1 to 10 minutes. The hail days exhibited decreasing trend with a rate of 3.4 d/10a in CTNNRR during the recent 47 years, especially in Xainza with a decreasing rate of 7.0 d/10a. On the decadal scale, the hail days was more during 1970s to 1990s and less in the 2000s. According to the Mann-Kendall test, the abrupt change of the annual, summer and autumn hail days occurred in the middle and later periods of 2000s, indicating a change from the more period to the less one. There was obvious periods of 3 years for the hail days in spring and autumn, together with of 5 years and 8 years in spring. The decrease of hail days was related to the significant increase of mean temperature and the decrease of daily temperature range.

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