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中国农学通报 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (23): 116-123.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb19010150

所属专题: 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

一次前倾槽下混合强对流天气关键信息分析

高丽, 黄晓龙, 甘晶晶, 王凯   

  1. 台州市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-30 修回日期:2019-05-23 接受日期:2019-06-10 出版日期:2019-08-13 发布日期:2019-08-13
  • 通讯作者: 高丽
  • 基金资助:
    浙江省气象局预报员专项“台州6.29 混合强对流和7.3 强降水对比分析究”(2018YBY07);台州市科技局项目“台州新一代天气雷达产品的 本地化研究”(2016A33386);台州市气象局青年科技项目“浙江省区域性雷暴大风气候特征及环境参数研究”(TZ2018QN01)。

Mixed Strong Convective Weather Under a Forward Trough: Key Information Analysis

  • Received:2019-01-30 Revised:2019-05-23 Accepted:2019-06-10 Online:2019-08-13 Published:2019-08-13

摘要: 为加强防灾减灾能力,克服强对流过程预报失误问题,本研究综合利用多源气象观测资料,对2018.6.29浙江省中南部一次混合强对流过程进行分析。结果表明:前倾槽、地面辐合线及地形抬升,导致新生对流的发展、维持;前期不稳定能量累积明显,高Cape、θse能量大值区和925 hPa比湿都对此次强对流强度有较好的指示意义,但逆温层及干侵入导致K指数参考意义差;降雹风暴中气旋出现了9个体扫并伴有强风切变,同时VIL跃增相对降雹时刻有18 min提前量,为短临预报争取了预警时间;本次过程ρVIL表现出高敏感性,将估测冰雹直径≥5和ρVIL≥4结合会对冰雹有更好的指示意义;VIL指数结合VILmax和ρVILmax可推断出风暴性质;风暴承载层抵消作用导致此次雹云风暴移动发展受限。

关键词: 麻地膜, 麻地膜, 辣椒, 营养生长

Abstract: To strengthen the capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation, overcome the prediction errors of strong convection process. We analyzed a mixed strong convective event in south-central Zhejiang on June 29, 2018 based on multi-source meteorological observation data. The results showed that: the forward trough, surface convergence line and orographic uplift led to the development and maintenance of new convection; the accumulation of unstable energy in the early stage was obvious; high Cape, θse energy cumulation zone and 925 hPa specific humidity had good indicative significance for this strong convection intensity; but the inversion layer and dry intrusion led to poor reference of K; 9 body sweeps and strong wind shear occurred in the mesocyclone during hailstorm; at the same time, the jump of VIL was 18 min ahead of the hail time providing early warning time for short-term forecast; high sensitivity of ρVIL was showed in this process, and combining the estimation of hail diameter (≥5) and VIL (≥4) could provide the better significance; the combination of VIL with VILmax and ρVILmax could deduce the property of the storm; the offsetting effect of storm bearing layer resulted in the limited development of the hailstorm.

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