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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2024, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (34): 125-133.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0233

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于信息扩散理论的丹东软枣猕猴桃成熟期暴雨致灾风险特征研究

董海涛1(), 刘东明2, 李如楠1, 房一禾3,4()   

  1. 1 丹东市气象局，辽宁丹东 118000
    2 辽宁省生态气象和卫星遥感中心，沈阳 110166
    3 沈阳区域气候中心，沈阳 110166
    4 盘锦国家气候观象台，辽宁盘锦 124000
  • 收稿日期:2024-04-03 修回日期:2024-07-19 出版日期:2024-12-05 发布日期:2024-12-03
  • 通讯作者:
    房一禾，男，1986年出生，黑龙江人，高级工程师，博士，研究方向：气候学。通信地址：110166 沈阳市和平区长白南路388号，Tel：024-83893234，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    董海涛，男，1980年出生，黑龙江人，高级工程师，本科，主要从事农业气候方面的研究。通信地址：118000 辽宁省丹东市振兴区表厂路159号 丹东市气象局，Tel：0415-2151484，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J008); 丹东市指导性科技计划项目(DD2024030)

Study on Disaster Risk Characteristics of Rainstorm in Mature Period of Actinidia arguta in Dandong Based on Information Diffusion Theory

DONG Haitao1(), LIU Dongming2, LI Runan1, FANG Yihe3,4()   

  1. 1 Dandong City Bureau of Meteorology, Dandong, Liaoning 118000
    2 Liaoning Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center, Shenyang 110166
    3 Shenyang Regional Climate Center, Shenyang 110166
    4 Panjin National Climate Observatory, Panjin, Liaoning 124000
  • Received:2024-04-03 Revised:2024-07-19 Published:2024-12-05 Online:2024-12-03

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摘要：

为全面了解暴雨灾害对软枣猕猴桃成熟期影响，利用1991—2020年丹东地区4个站点软枣猕猴桃成熟期的气象资料，以连续2 d或2 d以上暴雨（日降水量≥0.1 mm，且至少1 d降水量≥50 mm）作为暴雨灾害指标，综合考虑频次、强度和持续时间，制定轻度、中度、重度暴雨灾害等级，通过灾害发生次数和站次比分析软枣猕猴桃暴雨灾害的变化规律，基于信息扩散理论评估暴雨灾害风险概率。结果表明，30 a间研究区软枣猕猴桃成熟期暴雨过程发生天数呈增多趋势，其中宽甸地区增幅最大，平均每10 a增加0.4 d，发生暴雨灾害可能较高。30 a间研究区软枣猕猴桃成熟期不同等级暴雨发生次数轻度>中度>重度，暴雨灾害风险概率顺次分别为27.9%、11.5%、7.2%，同时3个等级暴雨灾害对应的风险概率高值区域为振安、东港和振安。综上所述，宽甸地区发生暴雨灾害风险概率虽不如振安和东港，但降水量却高于2个地区，说明宽甸地区更容易发生高级别暴雨天气过程。丹东地区软枣猕猴桃成熟期发生暴雨灾害的风险高、范围广、程度重。研究结果得出了各站点不同等级暴雨灾害的风险概率和重现期规律，可为科学应对软枣猕猴桃成熟期暴雨灾害提供参考。

关键词: 软枣猕猴桃, 成熟期, 暴雨灾害, 信息扩散, 风险概率

Abstract:

In order to fully understand the impact of rainstorm disaster on the maturity stage of Actinidia arguta, the meteorological data of the maturity stage of A. arguta at four stations in Dandong from 1991 to 2020 were used. The rainstorm with continuous 2 d or more than 2 d (daily precipitation ≥0.1 mm, and at least 1 d precipitation ≥50 mm) was used as the index of rainstorm disaster. Considering the frequency, intensity and duration, the grades of mild, moderate and severe rainstorm disasters were formulated. The variation law of rainstorm disaster of A. arguta was analyzed by the number of disasters and the ratio of stations. The risk probability of rainstorm disaster was evaluated based on information diffusion theory. The results showed that the number of days of rainstorm process in the mature period of A. arguta in the study area increased in 30 a, and the increase in Kuandian area was the largest, with an average increase of 0.4 d per 10 a, and the occurrence of rainstorm disaster might be higher. During the 30 years, the occurrence frequency of different grades of rainstorm in the mature period of A. arguta in the study area was mild> moderate> severe, and the risk probability of rainstorm disaster was consistent with it, which was 27.9%, 11.5% and 7.2%, respectively. At the same time, the high risk probability areas corresponding to the three grades of rainstorm disaster were Zhen’an, Donggang and Zhen’an. In summary, although the probability of rainstorm disaster risk in Kuandian area is not as high as that in Zhen’an and Donggang, the precipitation is higher than that in the two areas, indicating that Kuandian area is more prone to high-level rainstorm weather processes. The risk of rainstorm disaster in the mature stage of A. arguta in Dandong area is high, with wide range and heavy degree. The research results obtained the risk probability and return period law of different grades of rainstorm disasters at each station, which provided a reference for scientific response to rainstorm disasters in the mature stage of A. arguta.

Key words: Actinidia arguta, maturity period, rainstorm disaster, information diffusion, risk probability