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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2026, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 133-140.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0340

• 资源·环境·生态·土壤·气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化背景下内蒙古大豆种植带的变化特征研究

曲学斌1(), 牛冬2, 唐红艳3(), 林聪1   

  1. 1 呼伦贝尔市气象局， 内蒙古呼伦贝尔 021008
    2 内蒙古自治区气象服务中心， 呼和浩特 010051
    3 内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心， 呼和浩特 010051
  • 收稿日期:2025-04-28 修回日期:2025-11-26 出版日期:2026-01-25 发布日期:2026-01-22
  • 通讯作者:
    唐红艳，女，1966年出生，辽宁建平人，正高级工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象方面的研究。通信地址：010051 内蒙古呼和浩特市新城区海拉尔大街49号 内蒙古自治区生态与农业气象中心，Tel：0471-3335094，E-mail：。
  • 作者简介:

    曲学斌，男，1988年出生，辽宁开原人，高级工程师，硕士，主要从事农业气象方面的研究。通信地址：021008 内蒙古呼伦贝尔市海拉尔区根河路108号 呼伦贝尔市气象局，Tel：0470-8244470，E-mail：。

  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局气候变化专项“气候变化对内蒙古大豆适宜性的影响研究”(CCSF202025); 中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项“内蒙古大豆霜冻灾害风险精细化动态预警技术及示范应用”(24NLTSZ008); 内蒙古自治区气象局科研项目“扎兰屯地区不同熟性大豆品种气候适宜性试验及霜冻指标研究”(nmqxkxsy202403); 内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目“大豆食心虫、菌核病风险区划方法及应用研究”(nmqxkjcx202508)

Changing Characteristics of Potential Soybean Planting Zones in Inner Mongolia under Climate Change

QU Xuebin1(), NIU Dong2, TANG Hongyan3(), LIN Cong1   

  1. 1 Hulunbuir Meteorological Bureau, Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia 021008
    2 Inner Mongolia Meteorological Service Center, Hohhot 010051
    3 Inner Mongolia Ecology and Agricultural Meteorology Center, Hohhot 010051
  • Received:2025-04-28 Revised:2025-11-26 Published:2026-01-25 Online:2026-01-22

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摘要：

内蒙古大兴安岭东南麓作为中国重要的大豆生产基地，其种植带的变迁直接关系保障国家粮食安全。本研究利用1961—2020年内蒙古东部38个气象站点数据，结合气候倾向率、Gamma分布和小网格推算模型，系统分析气候变化对该区域大豆种植带的影响。结果表明：该地区热量资源呈现增强趋势，1991—2020年平均气温较1961—1990年平均升高1.11℃，≥10℃积温平均增加203.2℃·d，无霜期平均延长9.4 d。受此影响，大豆潜在种植区总面积扩张27195 km2，种植北界北移约101~224 km；安全种植区总面积扩张22599 km2，北界北移约101~153 km。气候变暖显著提升了大豆种植的北扩潜力和中、晚熟品种的推广价值。建议参考积温带变化优化大豆不同熟性品种的种植结构，为内蒙古乃至全国的大豆振兴提供科学支撑。

关键词: 气候变化, 大豆, 种植带, 积温, 小网格推算, 北移西扩, 内蒙古

Abstract:

The southeastern foothills of the Greater Khingan Range in Inner Mongolia serve as a critical soybean production base in China, where the shifts in planting zones are vital for ensuring national food security. Based on meteorological data from 38 stations in eastern Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2020, this study systematically analyzed the impact of climate change on soybean planting zones using climate tendency rate, Gamma distribution, and a small-grid estimation model. Results indicate a significant increase in thermal resources in the region: the average temperature during 1991-2020 rose by 1.11℃ compared to the 1961-1990 period, with ≥10℃ accumulated temperature increasing by 203.2℃·d and the frost-free period extending by 9.4 days. The total areas of potential soybean planting zones were expanded by 27195 km2, with the northern boundary shifting approximately 101-224 km northward. The safe planting zones exhibited a slightly smaller northward shift (101-153 km) but were still expanded by 22,599 km2. Climate warming has significantly enhanced the potential for extending the northern planting boundary of soybeans and promoting mid- and late-maturing varieties. These findings suggest optimizing soybean cultivar arrangements based on accumulated temperature zone shifts, providing scientific support for revitalizing soybean production in Northeast China.

Key words: climate change, soybean, planting zone, accumulated temperature, small-grid estimation, northward and westward expansion, Inner Mongolia