关键词: 前景, 前景

Abstract:

It is necessary to check the potential impacts of climate change on canola production in the future. As one of the three Chinese oil-bearing crops, canola has attracted more and more attentions currently primarily due to the growing importance as a bio-energy crop. Climate change and its impacts have brought great concern to canola production, and Yangtze River region is one of the major canola growing zones in China. We assessed canola production of Yangtze River region using regional climate model (PRECIS) and APSIM-Canola crop model. Rain-fed canola growing was simulated with present climate (BS) (1961-1990), and future (2011-2100) under two climate scenarios (A2 and B2). Combine with multiple regression statistics method, canola production effects which climate change has caused in the past and will possible cause in the future was analyzed. The results showed that: (1) Rain-fed canola yield has a negative relation with radiation and temperature, but positive relation with precipitation during squaring - bolting stage and bolting - flowering stage. (2) Future simulations indicated that canola yields per unit field under A2 and B2 were both show downtrend as time going, and the lowest value appeared in 2080-2089. The variability of Rain-fed canola yields showed a growing trend from 2020 to 2089, and the variability of canola yield under A2 was much larger than which under B2 during the same period. (3)Adaptive measurements can be used to relieve the trend of yield reduction such as modifying sowing date and cultivation manner, or changing cultivar of canola.