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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (3): 140-144.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16120076

所属专题： 玉米； 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

玉米干旱气象保险指数研究——以陇东南为例

姚小英,姚玉璧,袁佰顺,邓卓雅,靳永才   

  1. 天水市气象局,定西市气象局,天水市气象局,天水市气象局,天水市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2016-12-15 修回日期:2018-01-10 接受日期:2017-05-10 出版日期:2018-02-01 发布日期:2018-02-01
  • 通讯作者: 姚小英
  • 基金资助:
    公益性行业（气象）科研专项“中国北方农业干旱风险评估技术与对策”(GYHY201506001-6)；甘肃省气象局科研项目“天水果树生长环境 精细化监测服务系统”(Gsmazd2016-12)。

Drought Meteorological Insurance Index of Maize: A Case of Southeastern Gansu

邓卓雅 and 靳永才   

  • Received:2016-12-15 Revised:2018-01-10 Accepted:2017-05-10 Online:2018-02-01 Published:2018-02-01

摘要： 干旱是影响陇东南玉米产量的主要因素，为了探索该地域玉米种植干旱气象风险，运用1961—2015 年陇东南天水市区域内7 个气象站降水及同期玉米产量资料，分析1961—2015 不同类型干旱出现概率及其干旱对玉米产量的影响，建立干旱气象保险指数并依据其对玉米种植的风险理赔额度进行计算分 析。结果表明：干旱对玉米产量无影响年份概率最高，为27.9%。春季、初夏、伏期3 个时段重旱依次出现的概率为0.1%，春季、伏期出现重旱而初夏出现中旱的组合及春季出现中旱、初夏及伏期出现重旱的组合出现概率分别为0.1%和0.2%，均属于小概率事件。在研究年份中，免于理赔的组合（干旱气象保险 指数≤10%）有9 种，0＜理赔标准≤10%的干旱组合有17 种，10%＜理赔标准≤40%的干旱组合38种，理赔标准＞40%（干旱气象保险指数＞50%）的组合为0。

关键词: 低温层积, 低温层积, 百合, 试管小鳞茎, 活力指数, 抽薹

Abstract: Drought is the main factor that influences maize yield in southeastern Gansu. To explore the drought meteorological risk of maize planting in this region, the authors analyzed the occurrence frequency of all drought levels and their effect on maize yield, set up the drought meteorological insurance index and calculated the risk compensation amount of drought on maize yield based on the data of precipitation and maize yield of 7 weather stations in Tianshui from 1961 to 2015. The results showed that: the frequency of non- influence drought on maize was the highest, up to 27.9%; the frequency of heavy drought that appeared successively in spring, early summer and hot summer was 0.1%; the combination of heavy drought in spring and hot summer and medium drought in early summer had a frequency of 0.1% and the combination of heavy drought in early summer and hot summer and medium drought in spring had a frequency of 0.2%, they all belonged to small probability events; there were 9 kinds of drought combination free from compensation when the drought meteorological insurance index was ≤ 10%, 17 kinds of drought combination had the insurance compensation standard ranged from 0% to 10%, 38 kinds of drought combination had the insurance compensation standard ranged from 10% to 40%; there was no drought combination that had the insurance compensation standard (the drought meteorological insurance index was above 50%) above 40%.