关键词: 奉贤黄桃, 产量, 气象因子, 相关分析, 回归模型

Abstract:

Based on the meteorological observation data of temperature, precipitation, humidity and sunshine on a ten-day basis from 1981 to 2019 and the yield data of yellow peach from 1982 to 2019, the variation trend of yellow peach yield and its response to meteorological factors were analyzed, and the meteorological forecasting model of Fengxian yellow peach yield was established using single factor index and correlation analysis, to analyze the effects of meteorological factors on the yield of yellow peach during the whole growth period from 2003 to 2019. The results showed that the yellow peach yield changed from the wavelike rise to fluctuation in 2003, and the yield variation coefficient was 22.9%. The correlation between meteorological factors and yield of yellow peach was higher in the fruit enlargement and maturity stage, followed by the stage of flower bud differentiation, germination to flowering and fruit-setting stage, and the correlation between meteorological factors and the yield of yellow peach fruit was small in the leaf fallen and dormant stage. Temperature (sunshine) in the fruit enlargement and maturity stage was positively correlated with the yield from April to June, but negatively correlated with the yield from July to August. The effect of precipitation (humidity) was basically opposite to that of temperature, and in late July, the minimum temperature, precipitation, precipitation days and sunshine were significantly correlated with the yield. The temperature at the stage of flower bud differentiation was positively correlated with the yield except from late July to early August and early September, and the last day with daily mean temperature no less than 10℃ in the previous year and the effective accumulated temperature at 10 and 20℃ in the previous year was significantly and positively correlated with the yield. The correlation between precipitation (number of precipitation days) and yield fluctuated greatly in each ten-day period at the stage of flower bud differentiation. In the leaf fallen and dormant stage, drought and insufficient cold storage capacity caused by warmer winters might have some influence on the yield. The least square partial regression equation of yellow peach yield based on meteorological factors has good fitting effect and can provide decision-making service for the production and management departments.

Key words: Fengxian yellow peach, yield, meteorological factors, correlation analysis, regression model