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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2009, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (20): 245-248.

所属专题： 水稻； 农业气象

• 植物保护 农药 • 上一篇    下一篇

福建省晚稻稻飞虱气象等级的监测预警

杨 凯,陈 惠,陈彬彬   

  • 收稿日期:2009-05-25 修回日期:2009-07-21 出版日期:2009-10-20 发布日期:2009-10-20

Monitoring and Warning of Meteorological Grade for Late Rice Plant Hopper in Fujian Province

  • Received:2009-05-25 Revised:2009-07-21 Online:2009-10-20 Published:2009-10-20

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摘要：

稻飞虱是影响福建水稻生产的主要害虫，其发生发展与气象条件关系密切。本文基于统计学方法对福建省21个县晚稻稻飞虱发生等级与温湿、降水和日照条件等进行了统计分析，找出关键性因子，并建立了晚稻稻飞虱气象等级的经验统计模型。通过历史回代检验，各地区晚稻稻飞虱气象等级与实际发生的等级相比，各地区“一致”和“基本一致”的可达到50%～96%，总体预报效果较好，可投入业务应用。

关键词: 湿地, 湿地, 生态环境特征, 可持续发展, 保护对策, 绍兴镜湖

Abstract:

Rice Plant Hopper is one of the main pests in the rice production in Fujian Province and its occurrence is closely correlated to the meteorological conditions．Based on statistical methods, the relation between the occurrence levels of late rice plant hopper and meteorological factors in twenty-one counties was analyzed. The factors included temperature, humidity, precipitation and sunshine hours. The experiential statistical model for the meteorological grade was established based on the key meteorological factors. The validation results by the historical test showed that the forecast accuracy can be reached from 50% to 96% by comparing meteorological grade with actual grade in each region. The forecast effect was good and the model could be put into operational application.