Abstract:

The aim was to meet the need of modern agricultural meteorology, and provide the scientific guidance for the government strategy and farmers’ filed management and agricultural production. Based on prediction model of rape’s growth period which developed by Jiangsu agricultural academy, using Anhui’s brassica napus growth stage date and meteorological date from 1982 to 2009, and the mathematical statistic method, the sectionalized prediction model of rape’s key growth stage was established. The rape’s flowering and maturity stage was predicted according to the weather forecast. Through simulation, back substitution, prediction and operational application, the result showed that the correlation coefficient about observed value and simulated value of rape’s flowering and maturity stage is between 0.8 and 0.9, and average absolute error between 2-3 days; also the prediction result is about 3 days from 2006 to 2009. This study provides theoretical support to rape’s growth process in Anhui, and the effectiveness is good in operational application in 2011, it can completely satisfy the needs of the operational application.