Abstract:

Along with climatic warming and development of regionalization and scale of potato production in Inner Mongolia, potato late blight had become a significant factor that restricted the improvement of potato industry. According to analysis of the relationship between the main meteorological factors in potato growing season and the prevalence of potato late blight in central Inner Mongolia, the meteorological suitability index of the sporangium formation of the late blight was determined. Based on the numerical product of the meso-scale meteorological elements during potato blossom time, the quantitative prediction model during the late blight pathogen epidemic period was constructed. Extreme maximum temperature from June to the beginning of July, mean temperature anomaly and precipitation anomaly percentage were the crucial meteorological factors which had effect on the sporangium formation of the late blight. And the temperature and precipitation were the most important in meteorological conditions affecting the prevalence of the potato late blight. Apply to the forecasting result and the meteorological suitability index in the sporangium formation period, the prevalence degree of potato late blight could be forecasted. The forecasting precision could get 87.5%.