Abstract:

In order to forecast the occurrence degree of corn borer, so as to gain a better prevention and treatment of corn borer, based on the observation data of corn borer in Tonghua from 1981-2007 , the author finally found out the meteorological factors which were closely related to the occurrence degree of corn borer. The author divided the occurrence degree of corn borer into three grades, namely mild, moderate and severe occurrence, and meantime divided the related meteorological factors into three degrees, based on the maximum correlation coefficient principle, and assign values to prediction and vary grades of prediction factors, and by statistic means the author created the meteorological forecast model for the occurrence degree of corn borer in Tonghua City. The accurate rate of the model testing was 81.5%, and the forecast testing was very well, too. The forecast model had a certain level of usability. And it could provide scientific evidence for the corn borer prevention and treatment work in Tonghua. At the same time, through the observation data, it proved that the low temperature of winter in Tonghua had no effects on the death rate of the overwintering larvae and the density of overwintering larvae was little related to the occurrence degree of the corn borer in Tonghua City.Key words: Occurrence degree of corn borer; Meteorological grade; Forecast Model