Abstract:

Abstract: The paper used climate datas of Nongbashi reclamation area in Xinjiang to analysis climate change and its effect on agricultural production by some statistical means such as application climate trend rate, climate coefficient and so on. It provided reference for sustainable development and disaster prevention and reduction. The results showed that: the temperature was raised obviously and the annual temperature tendency ratio is 0.349℃ in 10 years on average. In the later year, the tendency ratio is 0.446℃in 10 years and in the earlier year is 0.293℃ in 10 years. Rain tended to increase and annual rain tendency ratio is 15.227 mm in 10 years, seasonal rain tendency ratio of crops’growp is 9.186 mm in 10 years and in winter the rain tendency ratio is 4.716 mm in 10 years; the sunshine hours tended to increase slightly, the average annual sunshine duration tendency ratio is 24.861 h in 10 years and the seasonal sunshine duration tendency ratio of crops’growp is 24.035 h in 10 years; In summer is 18.141h in 10 years. Climate warming has increased heat energy in this area and enlarged the plant area of cotton cultivation from west and north.And instability of extreme climate incident and aggravated insect diseases have increased income of disaster prevention for agriculture.Therefore,grasping the rules of climate change, adapt climate change to adjust agricultural production, and lead it to a better way are the bases of good harvest.