Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (35): 152-157.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-0138

Special Issue: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

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Combination Forecast of Fujian Rural Per Capita Net Income

  

  • Received:2013-01-14 Revised:2013-03-05 Online:2013-12-15 Published:2013-12-15

Abstract: Based on 1978-2011 annual rural per capita net income data, ARMA model, Holt-Winters no seasonal model, quadratic curve model, and gray GM(1,1) mode, this paper establishes the combination forecast model with the weight of every model’s MAPE harmonic average and forecasts Fujian rural per capita net income from 2012 to 2015. The results show that MAPE of combination forecast model is 0.1821% which is higher than any other single forecast model, and average annual growth rate comes to 10.85% during 2012 and 2015.

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