Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (33): 56-59.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-0566

Special Issue: 水稻 农业气象

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Dynamic Forecasting for Early Rice Yield Based on Climatic Suitability Index in Hunan

  

  • Received:2014-03-05 Revised:2014-11-11 Accepted:2014-09-29 Online:2015-01-08 Published:2015-01-08

Abstract: Early rice growth and yield form are closely related to meteorological conditions. It is a great significance for agricultural production and food security by unfolding early rice yield dynamic forecast in Hunan. The climatic suitability model was established from the maximum temperature and the optimum temperature and the minimum temperature and water demand and optical characteristics of early rice in Hunan. The climatic suitability index was built by using the method of different weighted integration in Hunan. The author selected 15 representative stations, the climatic suitability index of the early rice were calculated in different times from 1961 to 2012 in Hunan. The relationship between the climatic suitability index in different times and the value of yields for bumper or poor harvest of the early rice was analyzed from 1961 to 2009 in Hunan. The dynamic forecasting model of early rice yield based on climatic suitability index was established. They were fitted testing in the sample percentage of consistency of change tendency between the forecasting yields and the observations and the forecasting accuracy. They were extrapolated testing by using the data from 2010 to 2012. The testing results showed that the value of the forecasting model for early rice yield based on climatic suitability index on April 30 and May 20 and June 20 was 64%-73% in the sample percentage of consistency of change tendency between the forecasting yields and the observations and the value was 94.7%-96.3% in the forecasting accuracy. The research results showed that the dynamic forecasting model for early rice yield based on climatic suitability index were able to meet the needs of the early rice yield forecasting services in Hunan.