Abstract: With the change of the social economic development and residents living habits, the diverse demands of vegetable put forward the new requirement to the vegetable industry, but the security of the vegetable supply gradually become the important factor that affect food security and social economic development. The experience of Shanghai urban vegetable industry development is very enlightening in both social and economic area. Based on the data of vegetable yield from 2000 to 2012 in Shanghai, this paper use the GM (1, 1) model to forecast and analyze the Shanghai vegetable yield data between 2013 and 2017. The precision verification of the prediction model shows that the precision of predictive model is good. Model prediction shows that Shanghai vegetable production volume in 2013-2017 has a trend of declining. The relevant government departments should strengthen the corresponding policy support, lead vegetable industry to transform the mode of production development actively, try hard to build the upgrade of Shanghai vegetable industry and endeavor to ensure the security of vegetable supply in Shanghai, promote the healthy and sustainable development of Shanghai urban vegetable industry.