Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (12): 279-284.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2014-2450

Special Issue: 农业地理 耕地保护

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The Land Use Change and Prediction Based on CA-Markov Model:A Case of Luzhuang Town, Gongyi City

A Case of Luzhuang Town, Gongyi City   

  1. Huo Mingming, Zhang Yiying, Chen Weiqiang(College of Recourse & Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002)
  • Received:2014-09-10 Revised:2015-04-02 Accepted:2014-12-24 Online:2015-05-06 Published:2015-05-06

Abstract: The simulation of land use change is the frontier and hot issue in the study of land use change nowadays, and reasonable prediction is a key means of planning decisions. The author made an interpretation and explanation about the three satellite images of Luzhuang Town in the year of 1987, 2000 and 2013, based on which the spatial and temporal features of land use change were analyzed by means of the transfer matrix of land use, dynamic degree and annual change rate. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the land use pattern in 2013. The average error of area in the simulation result was 15.3%, and the overall spatial accuracy reached 81.1%, so it could be seen that the confidence was high. The land use pattern of Luzhuang Town in 2026 was also simulated by the same model. It was found that the change of land use types were obvious, and both the cultivated land and unutilized land continued to decline, with a slow reducing speed though; rural residential areas continued to grow slowly, and forest land also increased slightly; the increase of construction land was mainly achieved by occupying cultivated land. Therefore, guided by the general land use planning, the government should strengthen the protection of cultivated land, restrict the blind and unlimited occupation of the cultivated land for construction, and reinforce the ecological conservation of forest land, so as to promote a harmonious development of society, economy and ecology.