Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 153-160.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb14110030

Special Issue: 资源与环境 现代农业发展与乡村振兴

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Effect of Thermal Resource Variation on Agricultural Production in Tianshui During 1964-2013

Li Xiaohe1,2,3, Zhu Yongjun2,Yuan Baishun2,Li Lin2, Hu Liping2   

  1. (1Institute of Arid Meteorology/Open Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster, China Meteorological Administration/ Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Changing and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020;2Tianshui Meteorological Bureau Gansu Province, Tianshui Gansu 741018;3Tianshui Weather Modification Office, Tianshui Gansu 741018)
  • Received:2014-11-06 Revised:2015-02-13 Accepted:2014-12-09 Online:2015-03-20 Published:2015-03-20

Abstract: The paper aims to provide the references for improving the ability to deal with climate change, mitigate adverse effects of climate warming on agricultural production and adjusting plant structure, and analyze the response characteristics of climate warming on main crops (corn and winter wheat) in Tianshui. According to the temperature data of seven national meteorological observatories from 1964 to 2013, with the climate trend rate and Mann-Kendall statistical test method, statistical analyses were carried out on characteristics of the temperature change and thermal resources during 50 years in Tianshui. Using the yield data of corn and winter wheat in Tianshui City during 1981-2013, combined with the corresponding periods of meteorological data, the author set up the regression model equations with SPSS 13.0 software, explored the changing trends of crop growth period and the relationship with temperature. In 1964-2013, the annual mean temperature, the highest annual mean temperature and the lowest annual mean temperatures were on the rising tendency, but the negative accumulated temperature in absolute value had a decreasing trend in Tianshui. The temperature mutations happened before and after 1994, and then entered a period of significant warming, the average annual temperature rose 0.97℃ around warming. The seasonal variation of temperature was the maximum in spring and the next was in winter. There were 13 warm winters in 1994-2013, and that was a warmer period in nearly 50 years. Since 1981, the days of whole growth period for winter wheat were reducing linearly at a rate of 0.59 days per year on average, the total days of whole growth period reduced by 20 days during 1981-2013, of which regreening-jointing stage, heading-flowering stage respectively declined 0.57 and 0.16 days per year. The whole growth period of corn reduced by 5-7 days, after climate warming, the temperatures warming rate was 0.43℃ per decade during corn growth period in 1981-2013. Climate warming had a greater influence on crop growth. With expanding of planting area of thermophilic and winter crops, and uplifting the north boundary of growing region, spring crops such as corn could be sowed early and have extended reproductive period. For winter crops such as winter wheat, seeding could be put off, turning green in early spring could be advanced and growth period could be shortened.