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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (21): 227-232.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15010074

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Precipitation verification of multi-model of 2013 in Fushun

  

  • Received:2015-01-13 Revised:2015-04-13 Accepted:2015-04-24 Online:2015-07-28 Published:2015-07-28

Abstract: In order to improve the clear- rainy forecast accuracy rate of Fushun, to avoid the occurrence of empty report and omission report, the author analyzed the clear-rainy forecast accuracy rate, TS-score, empty report rate and omission report rate of the 24h precipitation forecast (48 h precipitation forecast value minus 24 h precipitation forecast value) each from German numerical model and Japanese numerical model precipitation forecast products from January to August in 2013. The results indicated that the station 2762, station 2863, station 2763 of German numerical model precipitation forecast products and the station 3351, station 3452, station 3352 of Japanese numerical model precipitation forecast products had a good corresponding relation with the precipitation of Fushun national basic weather station, Qingyuan national basic weather station, Xinbin national basic weather station; the Japanese numerical model precipitation forecast products were higher in empty report rate, but the German numerical model precipitation forecast products were higher in omission report rate even though the two products had the same TS- score; the German numerical model precipitation forecast products were also higher in the clear-rainy forecast accuracy rate; in the daily 24 h precipitation forecast the German model precipitation forecast products deserved more attention.