Prediction and analysis of Land Use Based on CA-Markov Model in Ganzhou district

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16060073

Abstract

Abstract: Ganzhou District in Zhangye City was used as an example in this study, the data were land use/ land cover (LUCC) data of the Heihe river basin in 2000 and Zhangye City in 2007, the Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS remote sensing images in August, 2014 and Google Earth images. The authors used ArcGIS 10.1, ENVI 4.8 and IDRISI 17.00 as the computational platform to simulate and predict land use change in 2014 by CA-Markov model. By contrastive analysis between the predict result and the LUCC data of Ganzhou in 2014, the kappa coefficient was 87.87%, it showed that the prediction and the reality were well consistent. Finally, the land use classes of Ganzhou in 2021 was simulated and predicted. The predicted results showed that from 2000 to 2021 in Ganzhou, the area of cultivated land and construction land presented a rapid growth trend, the unused land area decreased rapidly; forestland and water area had a slowly increasing trend; grassland area changed a little. The reasons were mainly due to several aspects including policy, social economy, population and science technology. The prediction results of land use change of 2021 in Ganzhou could provide a decision basis for rational planning and management of land use and the formulation of economic development policy.

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