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Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (1): 109-117.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb16120070

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Extreme Precipitation Variation in Beijing During 1951-2015

杨洁   

  • Received:2016-12-14 Revised:2017-12-17 Accepted:2017-06-21 Online:2018-01-12 Published:2018-01-12

Abstract: The paper aims to master the climate change laws of extreme precipitation events in Beijing. By adopting methods of linear regression, principal component analysis, correlation analysis, Mann- Kendall mutation test and R/S analysis, the authors studied the variation trends of extreme precipitation events in Beijing based on daily precipitation data during 1951-2015. The results showed that: extreme precipitation indices of CWD, R25mm, R95p, RX1day, SDII and PRCPTOT showed a significant decreasing trend; extreme precipitation indices of R25 mm, R95p, RX1day, SDII and PRCPTOT showed similar interdecadal variation, the indices were all strong in the 1950s and basically showed a sustained decreasing tendency of fluctuation during 1960s- 1990s and the indices were significantly reduced and weakened in the 2000s; the extreme precipitation indices of RX1day and SDII had mutation from strong to weak in 1968 and 1988, respectively; the extreme precipitation indices had significant positive correlations among them except for the CDD; the variables of extreme precipitation (RX1day, R99p, RX5day and R95p), the variables of precipitation days at different levels (R25 mm, R20 mm and R10 mm) and the variables of precipitation duration (CDD and CWD) were the main factors resulting in the change of extreme precipitation events in Beijing; R/S analysis of extreme precipitation indices indicated that extreme precipitation events would reduce and keep a weakening trend in future in Beijing and the change of extreme precipitation events had a direct impact on the change of regional water resources. The contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will be further intensified in the future and will increase the risk of drought disaster, so the integrated water management must be strengthened accordingly to ensure the sustainable development of Beijing’s social economy, especially agriculture.

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