Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (36): 124-130.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb17060140

Special Issue: 耕地保护

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Space Differentiation Characteristics of Cultivated Land Pressure Index and Their Prediction in Jilin

  

  • Received:2017-06-30 Revised:2017-12-18 Accepted:2017-09-19 Online:2017-12-29 Published:2017-12-29

Abstract: This paper uses cultivated land pressure index model and the gray system theories GM (1, 1) model, the cultivated land using of Jilin province during 2003-2012 time and space differentiation characteristics were analyzed, and the pressure index and its dynamic change and trend prediction about the future.The results showed that: Jilin province cultivated land with the passage of time, and let go of the "two-child policy" in the population increasing, the future trend of the population will be increased, even if people in the future ten years per capita food demand will not increase, on the basis of the minimum area of cultivated land per capita increase rate tends to small, and a large number of cultivated land to construction land conversion, cultivated land pressure index has a tendency to be too large, and cultivated land pressure index of Jilin province in 2017-2027 in a rising trend, even if the cultivated land pressure is not very obvious, but still can not be ignored.