Abstract:

Studying the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of temperature in Qingxu County will provide reference for future meteorological services and climate change for agricultural production, and promote sustainable local economic development. Data of temperature and grain yield from 1960 to 2019 in Qingxu was selected and analyzed by the climate propensity rates, moving average calculations methods, Mann-Kendall trend tests and mutations. The results showed that: the annual average temperature in Qingxu was on the rise, and the trend rate of air temperature was 0.27℃/10 a. In the 1990s, there was an obvious line between the cold period and warm period. The interdecadal variation trend was “significant increase—steady—significant increase—gradual increase”, and there was an obvious catastrophe point in 1991. The average temperature in the four seasons also showed an upward trend, with a significant rise in spring. The interdecadal change showed a fluctuating warming trend. The average temperature in spring, autumn and winter had obvious mutation points, with the time of 1996, 1994 and 1980, respectively. The total annual grain output and the annual autumn grain yield were significantly correlated with the annual average temperature, but the annual summer grain yield was uncorrelated. Based on these, reasonable proposals for development and utilization of agricultural resources were put forward.

Key words: temperature variation, agriculture, Qingxu, mutation analysis, grain yield