Impact of Future Climate Change on Suitable Planting Areas for Summer Maize in Henan Province

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2026-0238

Abstract

Abstract:

This study investigated the impacts of future climate change on the suitable planting areas of summer maize in Henan Province by comparing climatic regionalization results between historical and future periods, with the aim of providing a scientific reference for adaptive planting layout strategies. Using historical meteorological data from 82 weather stations in Henan during 1975-2007, along with concurrent CMIP6 model outputs and future climate projections under two emission scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for 2015-2064, six climatic indices, including precipitation, solar radiation, and accumulated temperature (daily mean ≥10℃) over the entire growth period, were selected as regionalization criteria. For the baseline period (1975-2007) and three future periods under SSP245 and SSP585 (2044: 2015-2044, 2054: 2025-2054, 2064: 2035-2064), multi-year averages of the six indices were calculated, bias-corrected using the Delta method, and spatially interpolated to a 1 km × 1 km resolution via ArcGIS. Based on these interpolated results, a fuzzy mathematics approach was applied to classify Henan Province into three climatic suitability grades, and subsequent analyses examined changes in both the spatial distribution and area proportions of each grade. The results indicated that under the SSP245 scenario, the three suitability grades exhibited only minor fluctuations compared with the baseline over the next 40 years, suggesting a generally stable pattern. In contrast, under the SSP585 scenario, the suitable area experienced pronounced volatility, initially decreasing sharply and then recovering gradually, while the moderately suitable and unsuitable areas first expanded and later contracted. Given that the SSP245 scenario was more consistent with observed climate trends, it was recommended that the current summer maize planting layout in Henan Province could be maintained over the next 40 years without major adjustments.

Key words: climate change, Henan Province, summer maize, CMIP6, suitable planting areas

CLC Number:

S513玉米(玉蜀黍)

MAO Yangyang, GUO Yanling. Impact of Future Climate Change on Suitable Planting Areas for Summer Maize in Henan Province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2026, 42(19): 130-136.

Figures/Tables 7

References 25

[1]	IPCC. Climate change 2021: The physical science basis[M]. Cambridge: cambridge university press, 2023.
[2]	郭建平. 气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J]. 应用气象学报, 2015, 26(1):1-11.
[3]	王连喜, 刘畅, 李琪, 等. 气候变暖背景下京津冀地区冬小麦种植北界变化[J]. 作物杂志, 2017(1):61-67.
[4]	胡亚南, 刘颖杰. 2011—2050年RCP4.5新情景下东北春玉米种植布局及生产评估[J]. 中国农业科学, 2013, 46(15):3105-3114. doi: 10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2013.15.004
[5]	李蔓, 房世波, 韩佳昊, 等. 气候变暖对中国三大粮食作物的影响[J]. 干旱气象, 2025, 43(4):540-554. doi: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2025-04-0540
[6]	段居琦, 袁佳双, 徐新武, 等. 对IPCC AR6报告中有关农业系统结论的解读[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(4):422-432.
[7]	李少昆, 王崇桃. 玉米高产潜力·途径[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2010.
[8]	国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴2021、2022、2023、2024、2025年[EB/OL].https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/.
[9]	催明学. 农业气象学[M]. 北京: 高等教育出版社,2006:166-170.
[10]	KENNY G J, HARRISON P A, PARRY M L. A scenario-based approach to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on Europe’s agricultural land use[J]. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 1993, 105(4):433-436.
[11]	LOU Y, VICTOR O, et al. Projected changes in East African climate and its impacts on climatic suitability of maize production areas by the mid-twenty-first century[J]. Environmental monitoring and assessment, 2021, 193(12):831-831. doi: 10.1007/s10661-021-09547-4 pmid: 34797418
[12]	CHARLES K K GACHENE, GEOFFREY O O, et al. Assessing changes in climate suitability and yields of maize and sorghum crops over Kenya in the twenty-first century[J]. Theoretical and applied climatology, 2021, 146(1-2):1-14. doi: 10.1007/s00704-021-03669-y
[13]	余卫东, 杨君健. 河南省优质小麦适宜种植区及未来变化趋势[J]. 中国农业大学学报, 2021, 26(9):42-51.
[14]	罗伟, 苏志华, 韩会庆, 等. 基于CMIP6气候模式的西南地区烤烟种植气候适宜性演变与预测[J]. 西南农业学报, 2024, 37(10):2291-2302.
[15]	倪超, 李新江, 向涛, 等. 基于MaxEnt模型的重庆市茎瘤芥气候适宜性区划[J]. 中国农业气象, 2024, 45(11):1349-1356.
[16]	张斌, 尹剑, 邱远宏, 等. 未来气候变化下贵州杜仲气候适宜性区划研究[J]. 西北林学院学报, 2022, 37(2):140-148,263.
[17]	O’NEILL B C, TEBALDI C, VAN VUUREN D P, et al. The scenario model inter intercomparison project (Scenario MIP) for CMIP6[J]. Geoscientific model development,2016(9):3461-3482.
[18]	余卫东, 陈怀亮. 河南省夏玉米精细化农业气候区划研究[J]. 气象与环境科学, 2010, 33(2):14-19.
[19]	郝振纯, 李丽, 徐毅, 等. 区域气候情景Delta-DCSI降尺度方法[J]. 四川大学学报(工程科学版), 2009, 41(5):1-7.
[20]	段平, 盛业华, 李佳. 自适应的IDW插值方法及其在气温场中的应用[J]. 地理研究, 2014, 33(8):1417-1426. doi: 10.11821/dlyj201408003
[21]	尹雅琦. 气候变化对未来中国玉米潜在地理分布格局的影响[D]. 武汉: 华中农业大学, 2025.
[22]	赵秀兰, 徐玲玲, 张艳红, 等. 未来黄淮海地区夏玉米光温水资源适宜度及灾害风险演变特征[J]. 海洋气象学报, 2023, 43(3):88-103.
[23]	徐玲玲, 吕厚荃, 方利. 气候变化对黄淮海地区夏玉米气候适宜度的影响[J]. 资源科学, 2014, 36(4):782-787.
[24]	王翠花, 韩智博. 未来气候变化对贵州春玉米种植适宜度的影响[J]. 广西师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2025, 43(3):128-142.
[25]	吕彤. 中国主要粮食作物潜在种植适宜区对气候变化的响应[D]. 杨凌: 西北农林科技大学, 2023.

区划指标	适宜种植区	次适宜种植区	不适宜种植区
全生育期降水量/mm	400~500	300~400或500~550	<300或>550
全生育期太阳辐射/(W/m²)	>15100	<15100或>14100	<14100
全生育期日平均气温≥10℃积温/(℃·d)	>2600	2400~2600	<2400
6月上旬—6月中旬降水量/mm	35~50	30~35或50~60	<30或>60
7月下旬—8月中旬降水量/mm	60~80	45~60或80~90	<45或>90
7月中旬—9月上旬日最大风速>10 m日数/d	0	1	>1

区划指标	适宜种植区	次适宜种植区	不适宜种植区
全生育期降水量/mm	400~500	300~400或500~550	<300或>550
全生育期太阳辐射/(W/m²)	>15100	<15100或>14100	<14100
全生育期日平均气温≥10℃积温/(℃·d)	>2600	2400~2600	<2400
6月上旬—6月中旬降水量/mm	35~50	30~35或50~60	<30或>60
7月下旬—8月中旬降水量/mm	60~80	45~60或80~90	<45或>90
7月中旬—9月上旬日最大风速>10 m日数/d	0	1	>1

年份	适宜区	次适宜区	不适宜区
基准时段（1975—2007年）	62.89	19.91	17.20
2044（2015—2044）年	63.39	20.66	15.95
2054（2025—2054）年	62.88	19.49	17.63
2064（2035—2064）年	64.28	20.02	15.69

年份	适宜区	次适宜区	不适宜区
基准时段（1975—2007年）	62.89	19.91	17.20
2044（2015—2044）年	63.39	20.66	15.95
2054（2025—2054）年	62.88	19.49	17.63
2064（2035—2064）年	64.28	20.02	15.69

年份	适宜区	次适宜区	不适宜区
基准时段（1975—2007年）	62.89	19.91	17.20
2044（2015—2044）年	29.04	37.99	32.97
2054（2025—2054）年	38.00	35.43	26.57
2064（2035—2064）年	62.53	21.68	15.79