Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2008, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (9): 171-175.

Special Issue: 农业气象

• 林业科学 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Application of Forecast Model between Forest Fuel Moisture and
Meteorological Factors for Forest Fire Danger Forecast

Gao Yonggang, Zhang Guangying, Gu Hong, Zhou Erbin   

  • Received:2008-06-23 Revised:2008-07-15 Online:2008-09-05 Published:2008-09-05

Abstract: The forest fuel moisture is one of the main indexes for the forest fire danger forecast. Based on daily meteorological data, forest fire danger frequency data and forest fuel moisture data, meteorological data were derived from 5 meteorological stations of Yichun forest zone in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2005, Forest fire danger frequency data were derived from Yichun forest zone forestry fireproofing headquarters from 1961 to 2005, forest fuel moisture data were derived from Wuying forestry meteorological trial station in Heilongjiang Province from 1991 to 2005, with statistical regress method, the forecast model was built between forest fuel moisture and meteorological factors, the simulated values of the model could be used by the model of forest fire danger weather index. The results show that the simulated effect of the forest fuel moisture model was better, the application effects of the forest fire danger weather index model were improved by the forecast model of forest fuel moisture, the values of forest fire danger weather index were compartmentalized into forest fire danger grade application index in Yichun forest zone of Heilongjiang Province. The forest fuel moisture model may take the place of shortage for the observed data, and accelerate the application level for the forest fire danger grade forecast.

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