Abstract:

Sclerotinia stem rot is a major disease in oilseed rape. In order to improve the ability of predicting the occurrence trends of the Sclerotinia disease in oilseed rape, the relationship of occurrence and meterological factors of this disease was analyzed. Based on the correlation analysis between the meterological data and the occurrence data of Sclerotinia stem rot in the field oilseed rape in Jiaxing from 1980 to 2010, it was showed that amount of rainfall from the last ten days in March to the first 10 days in April and the rainy days in the first 10 days in April were significantly positive correlated with the disease incidence, while the sunning days in the second 10 days in April was significantly negative correlated with the incidence, and the mean temperature had a minor effect on the disease. Then using the stepwise regression analysis method, six prediction models were established based on meterological factors, such as rainfall, amounts of rainy days and sunning days, temperature. After the validation with historical data, the 5th and 6th models were showed higher goodness of fit, which could be further used for predicting the disease occurrence in Jiaxing and the northern Zhejiang Province.