Abstract:

In order to evaluate the risks of spring continuous precipitation in Anhui Province objectively and accurately, the spatial variation of spring continuous precipitations was calculated and analyzed according to the standard definition of the spring continuous-rain disaster and a quantitative assessment was made of the loss of rape yield, sub-regionally using the related meteorological data and rape yield data from 1960 to 1999, the model’s veracity was verified by means of the yield data from 2000-2009. The results showed that: (1) the quantity and intensity of the steady raining distribution increased dramatically from north to south in Anhui Province, the lowest appears in the north of the Huai River and the highest appeared in the south of the Yangtze, especially in the Anhui south region; (2) The model used in Jianghuai region had good performances on predicting the rape yield in response to the spring continuous-rain disaster, the relative errors (RE) for yield reduction was 13.4%; The model used in the areas along the Yangtze River could have a good forecast when the actual yield reduction was between 20% and 25%, the relative errors (RE) for yield reduction was 13.0%; The model for Anhui south region performed well when the actual yield reduction was high, the relative errors (RE) for yield reduction was 15.8%. Based on the results, the quantitative model could be used to evaluate the rape yield loss.