Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (14): 315-320.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-2447

Special Issue: 农业地理 耕地保护

• 23 • Previous Articles    

Land Use Change Prediction Based on CA-MARKOV Model: Taking the Example of Changji City in Xinjiang

  

  • Received:2013-09-13 Revised:2013-10-21 Online:2014-05-15 Published:2014-05-15

Abstract: In order to avoid all sorts of negative problems in the process of land use, the land use change in the future to make scientific and reasonable forecast that can provide the plenty of time to solve the upcoming problems. The author used TM remote sensing images of the city of changji of 4 scenes of 2 years in 1998 and 2011, interpreted the remote sensing images, on the basis of the application of combining the advantage of the MARKOV model to predict time and the CA model on the strengths to predict space, used CA-MARKOV model to analyze the change of land use and according to the analysis results were used to predict the land use of the city of Changji in 2015. The results showed that: in the future the construction land of the city of changji would increase rapidly and the phenomenon of the construction land occupied the cultivated land phenomenon would continue, but continuous land development would keep a slow growth on total farmland and forest land, grassland and other various types of land use change was smaller. Through the analysis of land use change in the city of Changji, the government departments should formulate principles and policies in time to solve the construction land increasing rapidly, especially the phenomenon of the construction land occupied the cultivated land. On the basis of ensuring the safety of grain production, the government departments should optimize the layout, use the benefits of economic, social and ecological of land and realize the sustainable development of oasis land use.