Characteristics of Drought Changes in Shaanxi Apple Production Area over Last 60 Years Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0767

Abstract

Abstract:

The aim of the research is to clarify the characteristics of drought changes in Shaanxi apple producing areas under the background of climate warming, and provide reference for Shaanxi apple production area to adapt to climate change and scientifically guide drought prevention and damage reduction. Using the monthly precipitation and temperature data from meteorological stations in apple-producing areas in Shaanxi Province over the past 60 years, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for each growing season and stage in Shaanxi apple-producing areas was calculated, and its trend, abrupt change, and periodic variation were analyzed. The research results show that the annual precipitation in the apple-producing areas of Shaanxi has been significantly decreasing over the past 60 years, with a general trend towards aridity during the growing season. The mutation points were mainly concentrated in the 1970s and 1990s, with a more pronounced arid trend after the 1990s. Among them, the eastern Weibei apple-producing area was particularly affected, with an increasing risk of aridity. The period from bud formation to early fruiting stage shows a clear arid trend and an increasing risk of aridity. The mutation points were mostly concentrated in the late 1970s to early 1980s and early 1990s. After the early 1990s, the arid trend had become more apparent, especially in the western and eastern Weibei and Guanzhong producing areas. The coloring-ripening period and winter dormancy period show an overall arid trend, with most mutation points concentrated in the 1970s. Since the mid-to-late 1970s, there had been an arid trend, but the change was not significant in all producing areas. The fruit enlargement period mainly fluctuated without a significant trend. The drought analysis based on SPEI combines rainfall and evapotranspiration, considers longer time scales, and is applicable to different climatic regions, providing a more objective reflection of drought conditions in the apple-producing areas of Shaanxi Province under the background of climate warming. The main influencing factors leading to drought in this region are the decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature caused by climate change.

Key words: apple production areas in Shaanxi province, SPEI, different growth periods, change trends, abrupt change, periodic variation

ZHANG Yong, HUANG Junfang, LIU Lu, ZHANG Weimin, QU Zhenjiang, LIANG Yi. Characteristics of Drought Changes in Shaanxi Apple Production Area over Last 60 Years Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2024, 40(23): 105-117.

Figures/Tables 14

References 34

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	延安	陕北北部	渭北西部	渭北东部	关中	全区
年	-0.12	-0.07	-0.13	-0.16^*	-0.11	-0.12^*
生长季	-0.11	-0.09	-0.12	-0.15^*	-0.10	-0.11
萌芽-幼果期	-0.12	-0.14	-0.21^**	-0.22^**	-0.20^**	-0.18^**
果实膨大期	-0.02	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.01
着色-成熟期	-0.12	-0.07	-0.10	-0.08	-0.08	-0.09
越冬休眠期	-0.09	-0.05	-0.08	-0.09	-0.13	-0.09

	延安	陕北北部	渭北西部	渭北东部	关中	全区
年	-0.12	-0.07	-0.13	-0.16^*	-0.11	-0.12^*
生长季	-0.11	-0.09	-0.12	-0.15^*	-0.10	-0.11
萌芽-幼果期	-0.12	-0.14	-0.21^**	-0.22^**	-0.20^**	-0.18^**
果实膨大期	-0.02	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.01
着色-成熟期	-0.12	-0.07	-0.10	-0.08	-0.08	-0.09
越冬休眠期	-0.09	-0.05	-0.08	-0.09	-0.13	-0.09

	延安	陕北北部	渭北西部	渭北东部	关中	全区
年	1978	1979	1973,1989	1993	1993	1990
生长季	1978	1981	1973,1990	1993	1973,1993	1974,1989
萌芽—幼果期	1992	1974,1992	1979,1989	1982,1992	1981,1991	1982,1992
果实膨大期	1975,1989	1975,1995	1978,2013	1970,2015	1976,2013	1975,1999
着色—成熟期	1968	1968	1976	1976	1984	1975
越冬休眠期	1976	1967,2010	1978	1976	1990	1977

	延安	陕北北部	渭北西部	渭北东部	关中	全区
年	1978	1979	1973,1989	1993	1993	1990
生长季	1978	1981	1973,1990	1993	1973,1993	1974,1989
萌芽—幼果期	1992	1974,1992	1979,1989	1982,1992	1981,1991	1982,1992
果实膨大期	1975,1989	1975,1995	1978,2013	1970,2015	1976,2013	1975,1999
着色—成熟期	1968	1968	1976	1976	1984	1975
越冬休眠期	1976	1967,2010	1978	1976	1990	1977

	延安	陕北北部	渭北西部	渭北东部	关中	全区
年	3,10,25^*	3~9,14,28^*	3~4,10^*,23	3~4^*,7~10,23	3~4,9,23^*	3~4,7~9,25^*
生长季	3,10,26^*	3~9^*,14,28	3~4,10,23^*	3~4^*,9,23	3~4,9,24^*	3~4,7~9,25^*
萌芽—幼果期	5~8,26^*	3~7^*,14,27	4~7,13,27^*	5~6,13,27^*	4~6,12,26^*	3~6,12,27^*
果实膨大期	3~5,9~14,30^*	3~4,10^*,35	3~6,10~16,27^*	3~6,26^*	3~4,10~15,25^*	3~6,14,28^*
着色—成熟期	2~10,21,44^*	2~6,22,44^*	3~10^*,20,43	3~10^*,19,44	3~10^*,18,43	3~10^*,20,43
越冬休眠期	4~7^*,19	4^*,21,44	4~7^*,17	5~8^*,18	5~8^*,18	4~8^*,18