Research on Correlation Between Meteorological Factors and Apple Leaf Fall Disease in Longdong Region and Its Prediction Methods

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0125

Abstract

Abstract:

This study analyzed the relationship between meteorological conditions and apple leaf fall diseases using observation data (2014-2023) from the Agricultural Technology Promotion Center of Ningxian County (a core apple-producing region in Longdong) and meteorological data from Ningxian Meteorological Station. Statistical methods included correlation analysis, multiple regression, and hypothesis testing. The results showed that the active period of apple leaf fall diseases in Ningxian occurred from June to October, with the highest severity observed between July and September. The disease onset was closely associated with early-stage rainfall and air humidity, while frequent precipitation and high temperatures were the dominant exacerbating factors. Occasionally, abnormal precipitation delayed disease fluctuations by 5-10 days. The annual maximum disease incidence significantly correlated with winter temperature, early summer temperature, and August-September precipitation/humidity. A multiple regression-based prediction equation was developed, so as to accurately grasp the internal relationship between pathogen activity and weather changes, and provide more accurate meteorological early warning and disease prevention and control suggestions for fruit farmers. Optimizing irrigation and enhancing tree stress resistance can effectively mitigate Alternaria leaf spot severity, thereby improving yield and fruit quality in Longdong apple orchards.

Key words: meteorological factors, Longdong apple, alternaria leaf spot disease, pathogenesis, correlation analysis, regression models

QIU Ninggang, ZHANG Hongfen, ZHANG Tianfeng, ZHOU Zhongwen, MA Yuanhui, QIU Yalin, DU Jun. Research on Correlation Between Meteorological Factors and Apple Leaf Fall Disease in Longdong Region and Its Prediction Methods[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2025, 41(27): 99-105.

Figures/Tables 8

References 26

[1]	邱宁刚, 张天峰, 周忠文, 等. 2023年4月28—29日冻害对陇东苹果花期的影响分析[J]. 中国农学通报, 2024, 40(20):109-114. doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0087
[2]	李晨娇, 由绍鹏, 赵少波, 等. 链格孢欧尔密病毒1对链格孢苹果专化型生物学性状及致病力的影响[J]. 河北农业大学学报, 2025, 48(3):39-45
[3]	白燕荣, 惠永强, 林彩艳. 洛川苹果斑点落叶病与气象要素的关系[J]. 陕西气象, 2017(6):11-14.
[4]	屈振江, 周广胜, 魏钦平. 苹果花期冻害气象指标和风险评估[J]. 应用气象学报, 2016, 27(4):385-394.
[5]	孟祥涛, 李梦洁, 段海明, 等. 生防芽孢杆菌与杀菌剂复配对苹果斑点落叶病菌的联合毒力[J]. 西昌学院学报(自然科学版), 2024, 38(1):14-20.
[6]	陈帆, 邱宁刚, 杨玉辉, 等. 陇东果园春季晚霜冻特征及防御措施[J]. 中国农学通报, 2024, 40(26):88-97. doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0172
[7]	李保华, 王彩霞, 董向丽. 我国苹果主要病害研究进展与病害防治中的问题[J]. 植物保护, 2013, 39(5):46-54.
[8]	石文静, 李金章. 庆阳苹果绣线菊蚜发生规律与监测预报技术研究[J]. 广东蚕业, 2022, 56(9):39-42.
[9]	张艳艳, 赵玮, 高庆先, 等. 气候变化背景下陇东塬区‘红富士’苹果始花期研究[J]. 果树学报, 2017, 34(4):427-434.
[10]	杨秀武. 苹果盛花期预报模式的探讨[J]. 果树科学, 1989, 6(1):42-45.
[11]	柏秦凤, 王景红, 屈振江, 等. 陕西苹果花期预测模型研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2013, 29(19):164-169.
[12]	毛明策, 刘敏茹, 姜创业, 等. 苹果初花期与温度的关系研究[J]. 中国农业气象, 2005, 26(2):123-124.
[13]	区胜祥, 宋国雄. 果树生物学零度和花期预报的研究[J]. 果树科学, 1987, 42(2):1-6.
[14]	杨秀武, 程志东, 郝寿青. 苹果生物学零度组合模型的探讨[J]. 果树学报, 2003, 20(2):140-142.
[15]	杨秀武. 苹果生物学零度和花期有效积温的研究[J]. 果树学报, 1995, 12(2):98-100.
[16]	陈亚东, 孟宪学, 赵瑞雪, 等. 我国苹果产业科学数据建设初探[J]. 果树学报, 2016, 33(6):719-726.
[17]	李金章, 王建民, 白欣可, 等. 庆阳苹果主要病虫害发生防治现状与对策[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2018, 46(15):134-137.
[18]	郭连云, 赵年武. 贵德县梨树始花期与气象因子的相关分析及预报模型[J]. 中国农学通报, 2016, 32(7):147-151. doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb15100013
[19]	刘长海, 党志明. 洛川苹果病害的动态监测[J]. 河北农业科学, 2012, 41(8):111-114.
[20]	王浩宇, 胡玉荣, 崔艳荣, 等. 基于改进MobileNet v3-small模型的苹果叶片病害识别方法[J]. 江苏农业科学, 2025, 53(5):113-120.
[21]	张增信, 王言鑫, 杨艳蓉, 等. 南京地区8种常见观赏树林花期可预报研究[J]. 生态科学, 2014, 33(4):642-648.
[22]	王浩宇, 崔艳荣, 胡玉荣, 等. 基于改进EfficientNetV2的苹果叶片病害识别模型[J]. 山东农业科学, 2024, 56(9):124-132.
[23]	刘中新, 朱慧丽, 李建平, 等. 麻城龟峰山古杜鹃花期滚动预报方法探讨[J]. 气象科技, 2016, 44(1):130-135.
[24]	王晓默, 李宪光, 董宁, 等. 济宁桃花盛花期预报模式[J]. 农学学报, 2014, 4(12):104-106. doi: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.2014-xb0361
[25]	DAI D, LIU H. An improved multiscale fusion dense network with efficient multiscale attention mechanism for apple leaf disease identification[J]. Frontiers of agricultural science and engineering, 2025, 12(2):173-189. doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2024583
[26]	CHEN B, ZHAO G, TIAN Q, et al. Climate-driven shifts in suitable areas of Alternaria leaf blotch (Alternaria mali Roberts) on apples: Projections and uncertainty analysis in China[J]. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 2025:364.

年份	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
6月上旬			9.3
6月中旬		18.6	16.5	14.4	10.1	12.7
6月下旬	5.8	24.7	22.4	27.8	12.3	18.8	18.9		18.3	16.3
7月上旬	9.9	27.4	34.9	35.4	18.8	32.5	19.8		22.1	22.1
7月中旬	16.7	28.9	49.3	38.4	20.4	35.8	38.5	14.8	25.3	8.5
7月下旬	20.3	40.1	42.6	42.8	27.5	35.8	41.4	16.3	27.5	14.6
8月上旬	28.1	48.4	53.9	65.4	36.6	36.5	46.3	19.8	28.2	15.2
8月中旬	30.1	50.3	56.3	69.4	49.2	43.2	46.3	21.3	42.7	74.5
8月下旬	39.3	51.8	56.9	73.4	52.4	44.1	45.2	32.2	44.5	79.3
9月上旬	43.6	53.7	57.3	78.5	64.5			41.4	45.8	82.6
9月中旬	45.8	55.8	59.5	79.1	68.1			45.9	48.3	83.6
9月下旬	46.1	56.5	59.8	81.8	71.8			53.4	50.2	85.3
10月上旬	46.3	56.5	59.8	82.3	75.7				50.2	85.3

年份	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
6月上旬			9.3
6月中旬		18.6	16.5	14.4	10.1	12.7
6月下旬	5.8	24.7	22.4	27.8	12.3	18.8	18.9		18.3	16.3
7月上旬	9.9	27.4	34.9	35.4	18.8	32.5	19.8		22.1	22.1
7月中旬	16.7	28.9	49.3	38.4	20.4	35.8	38.5	14.8	25.3	8.5
7月下旬	20.3	40.1	42.6	42.8	27.5	35.8	41.4	16.3	27.5	14.6
8月上旬	28.1	48.4	53.9	65.4	36.6	36.5	46.3	19.8	28.2	15.2
8月中旬	30.1	50.3	56.3	69.4	49.2	43.2	46.3	21.3	42.7	74.5
8月下旬	39.3	51.8	56.9	73.4	52.4	44.1	45.2	32.2	44.5	79.3
9月上旬	43.6	53.7	57.3	78.5	64.5			41.4	45.8	82.6
9月中旬	45.8	55.8	59.5	79.1	68.1			45.9	48.3	83.6
9月下旬	46.1	56.5	59.8	81.8	71.8			53.4	50.2	85.3
10月上旬	46.3	56.5	59.8	82.3	75.7				50.2	85.3

年份	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
6月上旬			0.01
6月中旬		0.4	0.22	2.6	0.31	0.02
6月下旬	0.02	2.0	0.11	3.9	0.37	0.03	0.6		1.2	1.0
7月上旬	0.08	1.96	0.8	4.3	0.51	0.6	0.32		1.3	1.1
7月中旬	0.21	2.5	1.5	6.2	0.79	0.7	1.31	0.37	2.8	3.4
7月下旬	0.40	3.8	2.4	6.6	0.91	0.9	4.6	0.52	3.6	3.5
8月上旬	0.67	4.4	2.6	6.8	1.1	1.1	7.9	0.64	3.8	3.6
8月中旬	0.84	4.6	2.8	7.2	3.8	2.3	8.6	0.68	4.8	5.1
8月下旬	1.5	4.8	3.1	8.9	4.1	4.8	4.9	0.87	5.6	5.6
9月上旬	2.7	5.3	3.2	9.2	5.8			2.82	6.2	6.3
9月中旬	2.8	5.9	3.9	9.5	6.6			3.95	7.2	6.9
9月下旬	3.3	5.94	4.1	9.8	6.8			4.22	8.8	7.3
10月上旬	3.3	5.94	4.1	9.8	7.4				9.6	8.5

年份	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
6月上旬			0.01
6月中旬		0.4	0.22	2.6	0.31	0.02
6月下旬	0.02	2.0	0.11	3.9	0.37	0.03	0.6		1.2	1.0
7月上旬	0.08	1.96	0.8	4.3	0.51	0.6	0.32		1.3	1.1
7月中旬	0.21	2.5	1.5	6.2	0.79	0.7	1.31	0.37	2.8	3.4
7月下旬	0.40	3.8	2.4	6.6	0.91	0.9	4.6	0.52	3.6	3.5
8月上旬	0.67	4.4	2.6	6.8	1.1	1.1	7.9	0.64	3.8	3.6
8月中旬	0.84	4.6	2.8	7.2	3.8	2.3	8.6	0.68	4.8	5.1
8月下旬	1.5	4.8	3.1	8.9	4.1	4.8	4.9	0.87	5.6	5.6
9月上旬	2.7	5.3	3.2	9.2	5.8			2.82	6.2	6.3
9月中旬	2.8	5.9	3.9	9.5	6.6			3.95	7.2	6.9
9月下旬	3.3	5.94	4.1	9.8	6.8			4.22	8.8	7.3
10月上旬	3.3	5.94	4.1	9.8	7.4				9.6	8.5

月份	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10
日照时数					-0.483^**	0.246		-0.484^**	0.243
平均气温							0.47^**	0.229
降水量	0.265	-0.274	0.511^**	0.265	0.451^**		0.599^***	-0.366