Abrupt Change Characteristics of Meteorological Elements in Ganfupingyuan Irrigation Area Based on Pettitt Test and Its Correlation Study

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2025-0931

Abstract

Abstract:

As an important commodity grain base in Jiangxi Province, the agricultural production and ecological balance of Ganfupingyuan Irrigation Area are highly dependent on the rhythmic changes of meteorological elements. Clarifying the abrupt change laws and correlation mechanisms of its key meteorological elements can provide scientific support for the climate adaptability management of the irrigation district. Based on the long-series meteorological observation data from 1987 to 2024 in this irrigation district, this study systematically explored the abrupt change characteristics, variation trends and inter-element correlations of air temperature, sunshine duration, precipitation and average wind speed by adopting the Pettitt test, linear trend analysis and correlation analysis methods. The results showed that the annual average temperature, annual average maximum temperature and annual average minimum temperature exhibited an overall upward trend, with significant abrupt changes occurring in 2007. After the abrupt change, the warming rate accelerated significantly, and the annual average minimum temperature increased by 0.110℃/a. The sunshine duration showed an overall downward trend, with a significant abrupt change of 25.95% only in autumn 2012. There was no obvious abrupt change point in precipitation, and the overall trend was non-significantly upward, with the increase in summer precipitation being the main contributing factor. The average wind speed underwent a significant abrupt change at the beginning of the 21st century, showing an overall downward trend, and the decline was more pronounced in summer and autumn. Correlation analysis indicated that the increase in average temperature was not driven by a single factor but by the synergistic effect of average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature. Furthermore, the decrease in average wind speed was significantly negatively correlated with the increase in the above three temperature indices, and their abrupt change times were synchronized, confirming that the decrease in wind speed was a key local driving factor for the temperature rise in the irrigation district. Therefore, during the study period, the increase of average temperature in Ganfupingyuan Irrigation Area was a coupled result of the synergistic driving of maximum and minimum temperatures and the regulation of decreasing wind speed. The synchronization of abrupt changes and the correlation laws of elements can provide technical references for local climate adaptability management.

Key words: Ganfupingyuan Irrigation Area, Pettitt test, meteorological elements, abrupt change characteristics, correlation analysis

ZENG Pei, YU Honglei, LI Yuekang, LIU Boyi. Abrupt Change Characteristics of Meteorological Elements in Ganfupingyuan Irrigation Area Based on Pettitt Test and Its Correlation Study[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2026, 42(6): 164-170.

Figures/Tables 5

References 29

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气象要素		突变点	突变前均值	突变前变化速率	突变后均值	突变后变化速率	变化幅度	整体变化速率
平均气温/℃	年	k=2007^***	17.80±0.47	0.027	18.64±0.52	0.083^***	0.84	—
	春季	k=2007^**	17.22±1.08	0.048	18.49±0.72	0.079^*	1.27	—
	夏季	k=2007^**	27.87±0.63	-0.030	28.62±0.62	0.045	0.75	—
	秋季	k=2007^**	18.94±0.82	0.031	20.05±0.78	0.091^*	1.11	—
	冬季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.024
平均最高气温/℃	年	k=2007^***	21.69±0.46	0.025	22.98±0.54	0.071*	1.29	—
	春季	k=2007^***	20.86±0.85	0.049	22.95±0.75	0.043	2.09	—
	夏季	k=2007^***	31.48±0.89	-0.007	32.72±0.64	0.04	1.24	—
	秋季	k=2007^**	23.27±0.83	0.034	24.63±0.94	0.075	1.36	—
	冬季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.033
平均最低气温/℃	年	k=2007^***	14.20±0.51	0.045^*	15.22±0.75	0.110^***	1.02	—
	春季	k=2012^***	13.73±0.89	0.055^*	15.55±0.47	0.068	1.82	—
	夏季	k=2007^***	24.36±0.58	0.019	25.45±0.54	0.063^*	1.09	—
	秋季	k=2007^***	15.24±0.91	0.063	16.71±0.82	0.115^**	1.47	—
	冬季	k=2014^*	3.40±0.89	0.008	4.84±0.61	-0.097	1.44	—
平均气温日较差/℃	年	—	—	—	—	—	—	-0.003
	春季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.013
	夏季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.000
	秋季	—	—	—	—	—	—	-0.012
	冬季	—	—	—	—	—	—	-0.013

气象要素		突变点	突变前均值	突变前变化速率	突变后均值	突变后变化速率	变化幅度	整体变化速率
平均气温/℃	年	k=2007^***	17.80±0.47	0.027	18.64±0.52	0.083^***	0.84	—
	春季	k=2007^**	17.22±1.08	0.048	18.49±0.72	0.079^*	1.27	—
	夏季	k=2007^**	27.87±0.63	-0.030	28.62±0.62	0.045	0.75	—
	秋季	k=2007^**	18.94±0.82	0.031	20.05±0.78	0.091^*	1.11	—
	冬季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.024
平均最高气温/℃	年	k=2007^***	21.69±0.46	0.025	22.98±0.54	0.071*	1.29	—
	春季	k=2007^***	20.86±0.85	0.049	22.95±0.75	0.043	2.09	—
	夏季	k=2007^***	31.48±0.89	-0.007	32.72±0.64	0.04	1.24	—
	秋季	k=2007^**	23.27±0.83	0.034	24.63±0.94	0.075	1.36	—
	冬季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.033
平均最低气温/℃	年	k=2007^***	14.20±0.51	0.045^*	15.22±0.75	0.110^***	1.02	—
	春季	k=2012^***	13.73±0.89	0.055^*	15.55±0.47	0.068	1.82	—
	夏季	k=2007^***	24.36±0.58	0.019	25.45±0.54	0.063^*	1.09	—
	秋季	k=2007^***	15.24±0.91	0.063	16.71±0.82	0.115^**	1.47	—
	冬季	k=2014^*	3.40±0.89	0.008	4.84±0.61	-0.097	1.44	—
平均气温日较差/℃	年	—	—	—	—	—	—	-0.003
	春季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.013
	夏季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.000
	秋季	—	—	—	—	—	—	-0.012
	冬季	—	—	—	—	—	—	-0.013

气象要素		突变点	突变前均值	突变前变化速率	突变后均值	突变后变化速率	变化幅度	整体变化速率
日照时数/h	年	—	—	—	—	—	—	-5.828
	春季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.387
	夏季	—	—	—	—	—	—	-2.554
	秋季	k=2012^*	446.99±92.14	3.784	331.00±93.29	-7.644	115.99	—
	冬季	—	—	—	—	—	—	-0.288
降雨量/mm	年	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.982
	春季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.242
	夏季	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.215
	秋季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.857
	冬季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.152
平均风速（m/s)	年	k=2007^***	1.97±0.26	-0.015	1.48±0.36	0.026	0.49	—
	春季	k=2006^***	2.02±0.32	0.011	1.37±0.4	0.041^*	0.65	—
	夏季	k=2001^**	1.83±0.2	0.002	1.46±0.51	0.015	0.37	—
	秋季	k=2001^*	2.17±0.4	-0.028	1.55±0.6	0.006	0.62	—
	冬季	k=2007^***	2.15±0.3	-0.007	1.48±0.26	0.013	0.67	—

气象要素		突变点	突变前均值	突变前变化速率	突变后均值	突变后变化速率	变化幅度	整体变化速率
日照时数/h	年	—	—	—	—	—	—	-5.828
	春季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.387
	夏季	—	—	—	—	—	—	-2.554
	秋季	k=2012^*	446.99±92.14	3.784	331.00±93.29	-7.644	115.99	—
	冬季	—	—	—	—	—	—	-0.288
降雨量/mm	年	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.982
	春季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.242
	夏季	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.215
	秋季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.857
	冬季	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.152
平均风速（m/s)	年	k=2007^***	1.97±0.26	-0.015	1.48±0.36	0.026	0.49	—
	春季	k=2006^***	2.02±0.32	0.011	1.37±0.4	0.041^*	0.65	—
	夏季	k=2001^**	1.83±0.2	0.002	1.46±0.51	0.015	0.37	—
	秋季	k=2001^*	2.17±0.4	-0.028	1.55±0.6	0.006	0.62	—
	冬季	k=2007^***	2.15±0.3	-0.007	1.48±0.26	0.013	0.67	—

	年平均气温	年平均最高气温	年平均最低气温	年平均气温日较差	年日照时数	年降雨量	年平均风速
年平均气温	1	0.900^***	0.905^***	-0.013	-0.063	-0.020	-0.585^***
年平均最高气温		1	0.843^***	0.276	-0.057	-0.089	-0.663^***
年平均最低气温			1	-0.284	-0.080	0.071	-0.529^**
年平均气温日较差				1	0.042	-0.287	-0.239
年日照时数					1	-0.159	0.025
年降雨量						1	0.077
年平均风速							1