Abstract:

Climate is the main natural factor affecting crop production. With the further development of climate change, soybean production will also face significant changes. At present, there are relatively few studies on the impact of climate change on soybeans, and research on adaptation strategies is even scarcer. Therefore, taking the Hulunbuir region as the research object in this study, the climate suitability model for soybean cultivation was constructed by using the data of soybean growth period from 1991 to 2022 and the simulation data of three climate scenarios, namely SSP1-26 (low emission), SSP2-45 (moderate emission), and SSP5-85 (high emission), of the BCC-CSM2-MR model of the CMIP6 model from 2023 to 2052. The changes in the climate suitability for soybean cultivation were analyzed by using methods such as reverse distance weight, natural breakpoints, and linear trend analysis. The results show that under the three climate scenarios of SSP1-26, SSP2-45 and SSP5-85, the area of the height suitability zone in the temperature suitability zone shows a downward trend compared with the previous 30 years. The evolution of precipitation suitability shows scenario differentiation. The high emission scenario has relatively high precipitation suitability, while the medium and low emission scenarios have a slight impact on precipitation suitability. Compared with the first 30 years, the solar suitability zoning under the three climate scenarios shows an increasing trend in the highly suitable zones, and the contribution of solar suitability to the study area will be further enhanced. Overall, under the three climate scenarios, the comprehensive suitability of most areas is between 0.60 and 0.65, and the highly suitable areas are mainly concentrated in the southeast of Hulunbuir.

Key words: Hulunbuir, soybean, suitability, BCC-CSM2-MR model