Abstract:

China is a net importer of wheat and has a high dependence on the international market. Therefore, studying the source structure of China’s wheat import and its influencing factors are vital to China’s food security. Based on the analysis of wheat trade situation during 1992-2017, we studied the influencing factors of wheat import trade by using the gravity model. The results show that: since 2013, China’s wheat trade volume has been in a stable state, gradually forming an import pattern dominated by Australia, supplemented by the United States, Canada and Kazakhstan; China’s wheat import structure has been optimized, and the growth rate of wheat trade with countries such as Kazakhstan, Israel and other participating countries of the Belt and Road Initiative have been relatively high; moreover, geographical distance, coastal status, whether to join APEC, exporting country’s GDP of the year and its grain output in the last year significantly affect China’s wheat imports; finally, we also put forward some relevant suggestions.

Key words: China, wheat, import, trade, gravity model