Abstract:

To provide scientific basis for decision-making and management of flue-cured tobacco production, the yield forecast model of flue-cured tobacco was studied. Based on the yield data and meteorological observation data of two main flue-cured tobacco varieties ‘Yunyan 87’ and ‘Xiangyan 7’ in the middle altitude area of Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture, Hunan Province from 2019 to 2021, correlation analysis was carried out between yield data and meteorological data in different growth stages to find out the key meteorological factors which affected yield, and stepwise regression was made between yield and key meteorological factors. Finally, the yield forecast models of flue-cured tobacco were established, and were tested by independent data. The results showed that the key meteorological factors which affected the yield of ‘Yunyan 87’ flue-cured tobacco were the average relative humidity in the prosperous mature period, the number of dry days in 50 days of the mature period, and the precipitation in 51-60 days after the prosperous mature period. The main meteorological factors which affected the yield of ‘Xiangyan 7’ flue-cured tobacco were the number of dry days in 50 days of the mature period, the effective accumulated temperature of 13℃ in the prosperous mature period, and the average temperature in 61-70 days after transplanting. The accuracy rates of back generation test and forecast test of ‘Yunyan 87’ yield forecast model were 94.6% and 97.5%, respectively, and the accuracy rates of back generation test and forecast test of ‘Xiangyan 7’ yield forecast model were 96.7% and 89.6%, respectively.

Key words: Yunyan 87, Xiangyan 7, key meteorological factors, flue-cured tobacco yield forecast, Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture