Construction of Drought Comprehensive Risk Index and Risk Regionalization Based on MCI Index

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-1039

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the yield data, growth period data and meteorological data of the main highland barley planting areas in Tibet, the hazard index model of the disaster factors, the exposure index model of the disaster-bearing body, the vulnerability index model of the disaster-bearing body, the drought-resistance index model and the corresponding index system applicable to the drought disaster risk assessment of the main highland barley planting areas in Tibet were established, and the comprehensive risk assessment model of the drought disaster in the main highland barley planting areas in Tibet was constructed. On this basis, the risk assessment and zoning of drought disasters were carried out, and the MCI index and comprehensive risk index of drought disasters were verified by using the historical drought frequency data. The results showed that the hazard index model of hazard factors based on MCI index had good applicability in the main highland barley planting areas in Tibet. The comprehensive risk of drought disaster was generally low in the middle and high on both sides. The high risk areas were concentrated in the west of the study area. The secondary high and medium risk areas were distributed in Nimu, Gongga, Sana, Mangkang and other places. The secondary low risk areas were mainly concentrated in Changdu, the middle of Shannan City, Chayu and other places. The low risk areas were concentrated in most of Linzhi City, the west of Changdu City, and the eastern edge of Shannan City.

Key words: MCI index, highland barley, comprehensive risk indicators, risk zoning

GAN Chenlong, SHI Jiqing, PUBU Duoji, ZHOU Kanshe. Construction of Drought Comprehensive Risk Index and Risk Regionalization Based on MCI Index[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2023, 39(29): 103-108.

Figures/Tables 6

References 27

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站点	播种—分蘖期	分蘖—抽穗期	抽穗—成熟期	播种—成熟期
拉孜	5月中旬—6月上旬	6月上旬—7月中旬	7月中旬—9月上旬	5月中旬—9月上旬
定日、聂拉木	4月中旬—6月下旬	6月下旬—7月下旬	7月下旬—9月中旬	4月中旬—9月中旬
拉萨、墨竹工卡、尼木	4月中旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—6月中旬	6月中旬—8月上旬	4月中旬—8月上旬
日喀则、江孜、南木林	4月下旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—-6月下旬	6月下旬—8月中旬	4月下旬—8月中旬
林芝、米林、波密、察隅	3月中旬—4月下旬	4月下旬—6月中旬	6月中旬—7月下旬	3月中旬—7月下旬
加查、贡嘎、隆子、错那、浪卡子	4月上旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—6月下旬	6月下旬—8月上旬	4月上旬—8月上旬
丁青、昌都、左贡、芒康、洛隆、类乌齐、八宿	4月上旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—7月上旬	7月上旬—8月中旬	4月上旬—8月中旬

站点	播种—分蘖期	分蘖—抽穗期	抽穗—成熟期	播种—成熟期
拉孜	5月中旬—6月上旬	6月上旬—7月中旬	7月中旬—9月上旬	5月中旬—9月上旬
定日、聂拉木	4月中旬—6月下旬	6月下旬—7月下旬	7月下旬—9月中旬	4月中旬—9月中旬
拉萨、墨竹工卡、尼木	4月中旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—6月中旬	6月中旬—8月上旬	4月中旬—8月上旬
日喀则、江孜、南木林	4月下旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—-6月下旬	6月下旬—8月中旬	4月下旬—8月中旬
林芝、米林、波密、察隅	3月中旬—4月下旬	4月下旬—6月中旬	6月中旬—7月下旬	3月中旬—7月下旬
加查、贡嘎、隆子、错那、浪卡子	4月上旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—6月下旬	6月下旬—8月上旬	4月上旬—8月上旬
丁青、昌都、左贡、芒康、洛隆、类乌齐、八宿	4月上旬—5月中旬	5月中旬—7月上旬	7月上旬—8月中旬	4月上旬—8月中旬

干旱灾害风险因子	关联度	权重
致灾因子危险性a	0.839	0.277
承灾体暴露性b	0.745	0.246
承灾体易损性c	0.755	0.249
抗旱能力d	0.691	0.228

干旱灾害风险因子	关联度	权重
致灾因子危险性a	0.839	0.277
承灾体暴露性b	0.745	0.246
承灾体易损性c	0.755	0.249
抗旱能力d	0.691	0.228