Carbon Emission Characteristics and Prediction of Carbon Peak Time in Gansu Province

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0864

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper calculated the carbon emissions of Gansu Province and various regions from 2000 to 2020, and selected the proportion of secondary industry, per capita GDP, urbanization rate, energy consumption, energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP, scientific and technological input, industrial added value and other influencing factors for principal component analysis. Based on the Probit model, according to the economic development indicators of the 14th Five-Year Plan, three economic assumptions were made for GDP growth in each region, and carbon emissions and peak time from 2020 to 2040 were predicted. The results showed that the carbon emissions in Gansu Province increased continuously from 2000 to 2012, with an annual average growth rate of 7.3%. From 2013 to 2020, the carbon emissions showed a “U” growth rate, with an annual average growth rate of 1.9%. Carbon emissions were positively correlated with per capita GDP, urbanization rate and other factors, and negatively correlated with the proportion of secondary industry and energy consumption per 10000 yuan of GDP. Under the fast economy, only Linxia will achieve carbon peak in 2030 to 2035; under the benchmark economy, Dingxi and other four regions will achieve carbon peak in 2030 to 2035; under the green economy, Lanzhou and other four regions will achieve carbon peak in 2035 to 2040.

Key words: carbon emission in Gansu, principal component analysis, Probit model, time of carbon peak

QI Haiqiang, ZHOU Dongmei, JIANG Jing, ZHU Xiaoyan, MA Jing, LI Miande, ZHANG Jun. Carbon Emission Characteristics and Prediction of Carbon Peak Time in Gansu Province[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2023, 39(30): 61-73.

Figures/Tables 12

References 41

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能源名称	标准煤折算系数	CO₂排放系数/(×10⁴ t/×10⁴ t)	能源名称	标准煤折算系数	CO₂排放系数/(×10⁴ t/×10⁴ t)
原煤	0.7143 kg标准煤/kg	2.7718	煤油	1.4714 kg标准煤/kg	2.1067
洗精煤	0.9000 kg标准煤/kg	2.7718	柴油	1.4571 kg标准煤/kg	2.1711
其他洗煤	0.2857 kg标准煤/kg	2.7718	燃料油	1.4286 kg标准煤/kg	2.2678
型煤	0.6000 kg标准煤/kg	2.8568	液化石油气	1.7143 kg标准煤/kg	1.8488
焦炉煤气	0.5928 kg标准煤/kg	1.3009	炼厂干气	1.5714 kg标准煤/kg	1.6877
其他煤气	0.5797标准煤/m³	1.3009	天然气	1.3300 kg标准煤/m³	1.6437
焦炭	0.9714 kg标准煤/kg	3.1351	其他石油制品	1.2000 kg标准煤/kg	2.1477
原油	1.4286 kg标准煤/kg	2.1477	其他焦化制品	1.3000 kg标准煤/kg	2.3646
汽油	1.4714 kg标准煤/kg	2.1711

能源名称	标准煤折算系数	CO₂排放系数/(×10⁴ t/×10⁴ t)	能源名称	标准煤折算系数	CO₂排放系数/(×10⁴ t/×10⁴ t)
原煤	0.7143 kg标准煤/kg	2.7718	煤油	1.4714 kg标准煤/kg	2.1067
洗精煤	0.9000 kg标准煤/kg	2.7718	柴油	1.4571 kg标准煤/kg	2.1711
其他洗煤	0.2857 kg标准煤/kg	2.7718	燃料油	1.4286 kg标准煤/kg	2.2678
型煤	0.6000 kg标准煤/kg	2.8568	液化石油气	1.7143 kg标准煤/kg	1.8488
焦炉煤气	0.5928 kg标准煤/kg	1.3009	炼厂干气	1.5714 kg标准煤/kg	1.6877
其他煤气	0.5797标准煤/m³	1.3009	天然气	1.3300 kg标准煤/m³	1.6437
焦炭	0.9714 kg标准煤/kg	3.1351	其他石油制品	1.2000 kg标准煤/kg	2.1477
原油	1.4286 kg标准煤/kg	2.1477	其他焦化制品	1.3000 kg标准煤/kg	2.3646
汽油	1.4714 kg标准煤/kg	2.1711

主成分	特征值	贡献率/%	累计贡献率/%
Z₁	6.113	84.330	84.330
Z₂	0.828	14.829	99.159

主成分	特征值	贡献率/%	累计贡献率/%
Z₁	6.113	84.330	84.330
Z₂	0.828	14.829	99.159

影响因素	x₁	x₂	x₃	x₄	x₅	x₆	x₇
Z₁	-0.529	0.997	0.995	0.981	0.997	-0.982	0.964
Z₂	0.848	-0.011	-0.036	0.183	-0.044	-0.143	0.227