Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Spring Wheat Moisture Gain and Loss Rate in Qinghai Province Under Climate Change

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0619

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to scientifically evaluate the agricultural climate change in spring wheat planting areas of Qinghai Province and rationally utilize the precipitation resources, the article analyzed the variation trend of climatic elements, the temporal and spatial characteristics of the moisture gain and deficit rate during the reproductive period of spring wheat in Qinghai Province from 1991 to 2021 by using linear tendency estimation, mutation test, and spatial interpolation, and the relationship between each meteorological factor and moisture gain and deficit rate was analyzed by path method. The results showed that during the growth period of spring wheat in Qinghai Province, the air temperature, ≥0℃ cumulative temperature and precipitation increased at a rate of 0.3 ℃/10 a, 50.7 ℃/10 a, and 23.6 mm/10 a, respectively, and the hours of sunshine decreased at the rate of 66.6 h/10 a, and the trend of changes in the various stages of reproduction was significant different; the full-birth period, the stem and leaf growth period, the gestation and anthesis period, and the grouting and maturity stage moisture gain and deficit rate increased by 0.864, 1.020, 0.464 and 1.771 percent per year, and the increase was not significant at the stage of pregnancy and flowering, and the moisture gain and deficit rate of the whole reproductive stage changed abruptly in 2011; from the results of regional distribution, the moisture gain and deficit rate gradually decreased from east to west, and the moisture deficit in Hehuang Valley was less, followed by the Qinghai Lake Basin, and the moisture deficit in the Chaidamu Basin was serious; Precipitation had a significant positive effect on the moisture gain and deficit rate, while sunshine, wind speed and minimum air temperature had a significant negative effect on the moisture gain and deficit rate. The climate of spring wheat planting area in Qinghai Province was warm and humid, and the moisture deficit of spring wheat was serious and showed a trend of slowing down. The results of the study are used to grasp the changing law of climate in spring wheat planting area of Qinghai, and to improve the ability to cope with the risk of spring wheat drought disaster.

Key words: climate change, spring wheat, moisture gain and deficit, Qinghai Province, warming and humidification trend

GUO Shousheng, ZHANG Chengyu, MA Xinrui, ZHAO Mengfan, LEI Chunkai. Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Spring Wheat Moisture Gain and Loss Rate in Qinghai Province Under Climate Change[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2024, 40(20): 122-129.

Figures/Tables 8

References 30

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站点	互助	湟源	大通	湟中	共和	贵南	德令哈
经度/°E	101.95	101.25	101.66	101.58	100.62	100.74	97.38
纬度/°N	36.82	36.69	36.97	36.50	36.27	35.59	37.37
海拔高度/m	2 483.3	2 675.3	2 470.3	2 666.9	2 836.7	3 107.6	2 982.8

站点	互助	湟源	大通	湟中	共和	贵南	德令哈
经度/°E	101.95	101.25	101.66	101.58	100.62	100.74	97.38
纬度/°N	36.82	36.69	36.97	36.50	36.27	35.59	37.37
海拔高度/m	2 483.3	2 675.3	2 470.3	2 666.9	2 836.7	3 107.6	2 982.8

	全生育期		茎叶生长期		孕穗开花期		灌浆成熟期
	回归系数	t统计量	回归系数	t统计量	回归系数	t统计量	回归系数	t统计量
平均气温	0.032	3.618**	0.017	1.182	0.039	2.960**	0.042	2.968**
最高气温	0.022	2.065*	0.017	1.062	0.028	1.724*	0.020	1.182
最低气温	0.051	5.679**	0.027	2.189*	0.061	4.704**	0.076	4.444**
≥0℃积温	5.066	3.478**	1.071	1.283	2.401	2.975**	1.594	2.695*
降水量	2.365	3.023**	0.714	1.787	0.463	0.911	1.188	2.664*
日照时数	-6.661	-5.667**	-1.958	-4.037**	-2.910	-3.791**	-1.794	-3.689**

	全生育期		茎叶生长期		孕穗开花期		灌浆成熟期
	回归系数	t统计量	回归系数	t统计量	回归系数	t统计量	回归系数	t统计量
平均气温	0.032	3.618**	0.017	1.182	0.039	2.960**	0.042	2.968**
最高气温	0.022	2.065*	0.017	1.062	0.028	1.724*	0.020	1.182
最低气温	0.051	5.679**	0.027	2.189*	0.061	4.704**	0.076	4.444**
≥0℃积温	5.066	3.478**	1.071	1.283	2.401	2.975**	1.594	2.695*
降水量	2.365	3.023**	0.714	1.787	0.463	0.911	1.188	2.664*
日照时数	-6.661	-5.667**	-1.958	-4.037**	-2.910	-3.791**	-1.794	-3.689**

	通径系数	t统计量
平均气温	0.060	0.369
最高气温	0.000	0.004
最低气温	-0.217	-2.140*
降水量	0.805	27.848**
日照时数	-0.351	-11.361**
相对湿度	-0.004	-0.206
风速	-0.113	-4.185**