Changes of Temperature Suitability of Kiwifruit in Shaanxi Province Under Background of Climate Warming

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0572

Abstract

Abstract:

The aims are to analyze the changes in temperature suitability of Shaanxi kiwifruit under the background of climate warming, provide scientific basis and reference for Shaanxi kiwifruit industry to adapt to climate change, and enhance the sustainable development ability of Shaanxi kiwifruit industry. Based on the temperature suitability function for the entire growth period of kiwifruit in Shaanxi, this study analyzed and evaluated the temperature suitability of kiwifruit in representative counties of Huaxian, Meixian, and Chenggu from 1961 to 2010, and estimated the temperature suitability of kiwifruit in Shaanxi from 2016 to 2060 using climate change prediction data under RCPs emission scenarios. The research results showed that the temperature suitability of Shaanxi kiwifruit showed a slow fluctuation trend of 2-3 years from 1961 to 2010, and the temperature suitability of kiwifruit showed an increasing trend after 1992; in the future, under medium and high emission scenarios, the temperature suitability of Shaanxi kiwifruit will show a slow fluctuating upward trend, and the trend intensity of kiwifruit temperature suitability under high emission scenarios will be stronger than that under medium emission scenarios; under the medium and high emission scenarios, the degree distribution of temperature suitability of kiwifruit in Shaanxi will move northward to different degrees compared with 1961 to 2010. Except that the temperature suitability of kiwifruit in the eastern part of Weibei has increased significantly, the temperature suitability of kiwifruit in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi has decreased, and the original scope of suitable areas has shrunk significantly, especially under the high emission scenario. In the future, development of Shaanxi kiwifruit industry can consider the moderate northward movement of planting and the threat of future temperature increase to the kiwifruit industry. In particular, there is a risk that the temperature suitability of kiwifruit in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi kiwifruit producing areas will decline, and the threat of high temperature heat damage to kiwifruit may gradually increase. The research results can provide a certain reference for the adjustment of the layout of the Shaanxi kiwifruit industry in the future.

Key words: climate change, kiwifruit, temperature suitability, estimate

LIU Jianchen, QU Zhenjiang, HUANG Junfang, ZHANG Yong, LIU Lu, LIANG Yi. Changes of Temperature Suitability of Kiwifruit in Shaanxi Province Under Background of Climate Warming[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2024, 40(11): 103-111.

Figures/Tables 7

References 28

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发育期	上限温度	下限温度	最适温度
萌芽期	28	8	10
展叶—开花期	35	12	16
幼果—果实膨大期	35	20	25
果实成熟期	32	15	22
落叶休眠期	7.2	-4	5

发育期	上限温度	下限温度	最适温度
萌芽期	28	8	10
展叶—开花期	35	12	16
幼果—果实膨大期	35	20	25
果实成熟期	32	15	22
落叶休眠期	7.2	-4	5