Predication of Potential Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda ( J. E. Smith) in Yunnan Province under Climate Change

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2022-0943

Abstract

Abstract:

The study will provide scientific reference for agricultural sectors to carry out the prevention and control of Spodoptera frugiperda and policy-making. By systematically collecting the distribution points of S. frugiperda in Yunnan Province, combined with our field survey data, the potential distribution of S. frugiperda in Yunnan province was analyzed with the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software in combination with current and future climate of CMIP5. The results showed that the AUC value simulated by the model was 0.903, indicating that the MaxEnt model had high accuracy in simulating the potentially suitable area for S. frugiperda. The four most important environmental variables affecting S. frugiperda were average annual temperature, max temperature of the warmest month, altitude, and slope. In the current state, the total suitable area was 271200 km², accounting for 68.83% of the total area of Yunnan Province. Under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2050, the potential total suitable area would expand by 13.92% and 16.35%, respectively. Under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2070, the suitable area would expand by 16.65% and 16.25%, respectively, compared to the current level. Predictions based on future climate change showed that the potential suitable areas for S. frugiperda in Yunnan Province would be obviously expanded, and there was a trend of spreading to the high latitude and altitude areas. Our results suggest that the climate change may result in the risk of continuous spread and harm increasing. Therefore, more efforts should be made to study and control this invasive agricultural pest, and close attention should be paid to the development of S. frugiperda situation in the severely affected areas and new areas.

Key words: Spodoptera frugiperda, MaxEnt model, climate change, distribution, risk control, Yunnan Province

YUAN Yulin, LV Jianping, GAO Yixin, DENG Zhongjian, ZHANG Yuan. Predication of Potential Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda ( J. E. Smith) in Yunnan Province under Climate Change[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2023, 39(33): 119-127.

Figures/Tables 7

References 51

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类别	代码	变量
气候变量	bio1	年均气温
	bio5	最高气温
	bio6	最低气温
	bio8	最湿季平均温度
	bio10	最暖季平均温度
	bio11	最冷季平均温度
地形变量	alt	海拔
	sl	坡度
	asp	坡向

类别	代码	变量
气候变量	bio1	年均气温
	bio5	最高气温
	bio6	最低气温
	bio8	最湿季平均温度
	bio10	最暖季平均温度
	bio11	最冷季平均温度
地形变量	alt	海拔
	sl	坡度
	asp	坡向

代号	贡献百分率/%	置换重要性/%
bio1	21.8	18.7
bio5	12.4	13
bio6	1.3	10.5
bio8	2.8	0.5
bio10	4.6	2
bio11	3.8	1.1
alt	34.3	38.6
sl	13.8	10.7
asp	5.2	4.9

代号	贡献百分率/%	置换重要性/%
bio1	21.8	18.7
bio5	12.4	13
bio6	1.3	10.5
bio8	2.8	0.5
bio10	4.6	2
bio11	3.8	1.1
alt	34.3	38.6
sl	13.8	10.7
asp	5.2	4.9