Abstract:

Climatic factors are the main factors affecting crop growth and development, and have a significant impact on crop growth, yield, and quality. In order to explore the characteristics of climate factor changes in northern Henan and their impact on winter wheat production, this study used agrometeorological observation data of winter wheat from 1984 to 2022 in Qinyang County, Henan Province, combined with meteorological observation data from the same period, and used methods such as linear tendency estimation, Mann Kendall test, HP filtering, and correlation analysis to study the quantitative impact of climate factor changes and climate yield during the growth period of winter wheat. The results showed that from 1984 to 2022, the temperature during the growth period of winter wheat showed a significant fluctuation and upward trend, with a climate tendency rate of 0.35℃/10a (P<0.05). There were obvious seasonal changes in temperature during the growth period, and a sudden change in temperature occurred in 1994. In the past 39 years, the accumulated temperature at ≥0℃ had increased, with a climate tendency rate of 53.5℃/10a (P>0.05), and the mutation points were in 2010 and 2021. The precipitation and sunshine hours during the growth period showed a fluctuating decreasing trend, with the linear tendency rates of 13.4 mm/10a (P>0.05) and -43.0 h/10a, respectively. Affected by climate change, the duration of winter wheat growth season was significantly shortened, and the yield was greatly affected by climate factors. Within a certain temperature range, the climate yield of winter wheat increased with the increase of temperature. For every 1℃ increase in temperature, the climate yield increased by 14.53 g/m². The suitable threshold for accumulated temperature of ≥0℃ during the growth period was 2281℃. There are differences in the impact of climate factors on the climate yield of winter wheat in different growth periods. The sunshine hours from tillering to over wintering, booting to heading, booting to heading temperature, heading to flowering, and precipitation throughout the entire growth period are key factors affecting winter wheat yield. This study can provide important references for regional winter wheat response to climate change and agricultural scientific decision-making.

Key words: climate change, winter wheat, growth and development, sunshine hours, temperature, accumulated temperature, precipitation, mann-Kendall test, production