Welcome to Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin ›› 2010, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (19): 306-311.

Special Issue: 农业地理 耕地保护

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Study on the change and prediction of the land use/vegetation dynamic—— taking the She county as example

  

  • Received:2010-05-06 Revised:2010-05-24 Online:2010-10-05 Published:2010-10-05

Abstract:

Based on the typical county of returning farmland to forest of She county in Hebei province as the research object, according to the two periods of the 1999 and 2007’s TM images and other auxiliary materials, this paper analysised the change of land use, regional difference and the conversion between various types ,and used markov model to predict the dynamic change trend of the land use in 2015. The results showed that:the She county in Hebei province in the period of 1999-2007, the forest land and high cover grassland were greatly increased 6.41% and 5.61% respectively for the implementation of the returning farmland to forest project. Cultivated land and grassland were greatly reduced, and reduced 4.60% and 7.68% respectively. From the result we can see the forest land, grassland and cultivated land were the dominant types of land use change in this area, and they had widely mutual transformation with other types of land use. By 2015, forest land and high cover grassland will be increased the 2.00% and 1.23%. Cultivated area will be reduced steadily by 3.74%. Forest land , cultivated land and grassland are always the dominant types of land use change ,which are the dominant position, therefore, reasonable using and protecting the forest land, grassland and cultivated land resource are the necessary way to construct the ecological environment in She county.