Abstract:

In order to solve the problem about agricultural development uncertainty by setting up the long-efficiency mechanism of agricultural development. The author made use of the time series analysis method and economic theory to summarize the periodicity of the development of industry and agriculture and the law of coordinated development of industry and agriculture. Based on the agricultural development uncertainty, the author probed into coordinated development of industry and agriculture in order to reduce the feasibility of agricultural development uncertainty and put forward the institutional arrangement and multi-levels policy systems on reducing agricultural uncertainty. The results showed that there were three impacts (natural conditions, natural disaster, the shortage of the knowledge of modern science and technology on agriculture in the period of economic cycle and knowledge economy) which had uncertain attacks on agricultural development. It was not only the need of agricultural development, but also the need of setting up ecological-economic system to reduce these attacks. We can carry out some measures to reduce the risk of agricultural development uncertainty, such as the auction mechanism of management right to rural land, perfecting the social security system, strengthening rural financial transfer payment, innovating rural finance and insurance system.