Agrometeorology

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Evaluation Index of Composite Adversity Disaster Damage of Rainy and Low Light at Rice Flowering Period in Cold Region

LV Jiajia, CHU Zheng, GUO Lifeng, LI Yuguang, LIU Xu, DING Haijiu, WANG Qiujing, ZHOU Baocai

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (9): 46-53. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0189

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Heilongjiang Province serves as the primary cultivation region for high-quality japonica rice production in China. The occurrence of heavy rainfall during the flowering period significantly impacts the seed setting rate of rice in cold regions, resulting in a decrease in yield. It is important to establish the identification index of the occurrence of rainy and low light conditions and quantitatively assess the yield loss for ensuring the domestic supply of high-quality rice and national food security. In this study, a multi-layer grey correlation analysis method was adopted to investigate the grey relationship among disaster factors, crop yield structure and final yield by combining meteorological, growth period, yield data and disaster historical data, and to construct the rice rainy and low light composite index (RSCI) in cold region, and establish the correlation degree model between complex adversity and yield loss rate. Based on K-mean clustering analysis method and historical typical disaster years, the critical value and grade of disaster were determined, and the evaluation index of yield loss caused by rainy and low light weather was established. The critical threshold and yield loss rate of rice with mild, moderate and severe rainfall were studied. The results of historical disaster verification showed that the identification rate of rainy and low light was 100%, and the identification accuracy rate of yield loss rate was higher than 80%. From 1958 to 2021, the frequency of rice rainy and low-light disasters in different degrees in the province was as follows: mild was higher than moderate and severe, and the frequency of rice rainy and low-light disasters in the northern agricultural area was higher than that in the southern agricultural area. In this study, the identification index of the occurrence of rain and light combination was constructed to provide technical support for quantitative evaluation of yield loss.

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Prediction of Low Temperature and Overcast Rain Disaster in Rape Flowering Period Based on Markov Model

ZHAO Yi, WANG Xin, GUO Xiang, CHANG Jun, CHEN Dongdong, YANG Desheng

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (9): 62-68. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0221

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Low temperature and overcast rain weather during flowering period is one of the main meteorological disasters of rape in Sichuan Basin. Predicting and studying the low temperature and overcast rain weather can provide scientific basis for disaster prevention and reduction of rape. This study was based on the assessment results of the disaster losses of low temperature and overcast rain during rape flowering period at 101 stations in Sichuan Basin from 1961 to 2020. We divided the 60-year sequence into 5 states based on the disaster loss rate, and used Markov test to screen site sequences and select sequences which satisfied the prediction conditions. We set up four models of superposed Markov chain, weighted Markov chain, improved superposed Markov chain, and improved weighted Markov chain to predict the low temperature and overcast rain disaster during the flowering period of rape based on the station sequence passing the Markov test, and performed backtracking and verification on the predicted results. All four Markov models had certain predictive ability, and the improved model had a significant improvement in overall accuracy compared to before, and the distribution of prediction accuracy for various levels of disasters was more uniform than before. In conclusion, the improved Markov model has better predictive performance.

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Response of Soybean Growth and Yield to Heat Change in Northwest Liaoning Province

WANG Lulu, ZHAO Lingchen, LIU Min, LI Xiaoting, JIANG Xin, XU Xinyue, ZHANG Shujie, SUN Yingjie

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (9): 69-74. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0218

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The key meteorological factors affecting soybean growth and yield were studied to provide reference for soybean production in northwest Liaoning. Using soybean varieties ‘Tiefeng 18’, ‘Tiefeng 29’ and ‘Tiefeng 31’ as materials, the response of soybean growth and yield to heat condition was studied. The results showed that the lower limit sowing temperature of soybean was 8.0℃, and the optimum sowing temperature was 15-20℃, and the yield was the most prominent with sowing in the middle and late May. The accumulated temperature of ≥ 10℃ should be more than 1140.0℃·d in the emergence-flowering stage of soybean, more than 1210.0℃·d in the flowering-maturity stage, and more than 2580℃·d in the whole growth period of soybean. The relationship between accumulated temperature and yield is parabolic function, and the accumulated temperature ≥10℃ between 2800℃ and 3060℃·d is the caloric index of soybean high yield. There are three key temperature periods for soybeans, namely, the rapid growth period of soybean flowering in early to mid-June, the flowering and binding period of soybean in mid to late July, and the granulation period in mid to late August. The temperature in early to mid-June affected the yield by 33.7 kg/(hm2·℃), the temperature in mid-to-late July affected the yield by -17.5 kg/(hm2·℃), and the temperature in mid-to-late August affected the yield by 10.6 kg/(hm2·℃). When the moisture condition is satisfied, the change of temperature is the determining factor for soybean yield and composition. The results of the experiment play a positive guiding role in developing soybean industry to cope with climate change in northwest Liaoning Province.

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Study on Relationship Between Coix Seed Vegetation Index and Meteorological Factors at Pixel Scale

YIN Jiaqi, ZHANG Mei, LUO Jianyu, CHEN Yuguang, YANG Xinhong, DONG Yuxin

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (26): 66-72. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0631

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The Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) can effectively reflect vegetation growth and spatial characteristics. In order to better understand the impact of meteorological conditions on the growth of Coix seed, this paper uses correlation analysis, T-test and other methods to conduct pixel by pixel analysis based on the remote sensing data of Liaoyang Coix seed growing region from 2013 to 2020 on the pixel scale, combined with the meteorological data of meteorological stations in the region from 2013 to 2020. The results indicate that at the level of multi-year time series, changes in meteorological factors during the growth season have a promoting effect on the growth of Coix seed vegetation. Temperature, precipitation, sunlight, relative humidity have significant positive correlations with Coix seed NDVI values, with temperature being the most correlated. Coix seed NDVI has the strongest sensitivity to the temperature in the previous month; In growing season, NDVI has the strongest hysteresis effect on temperature, followed by sunshine duration and relative humidity, and has no significant hysteresis effect on precipitation. The research results are of great significance for predicting the growth of Coix seed based on the ecological environment changes in the Coix seed planting area.

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Climate Influencing Factors in Growing Period of Chinese Cigars——A Case Study of Laifeng, Hubei

LIU Lu, LIU Jing, REN Yongjian, CHENG Dan

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (26): 73-79. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0060

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In order to reveal the close correlation between the growth of cigar and meteorological factors in Laifeng of Hubei Province, based on the meteorological observation data of Laifeng in Hubei Province from 2008 to 2021, combined with the foreign data of some literatures, using the time distribution of nonlinear polynomial fitting and the linear trend change diagnosis and tendency rate to calculate and analyze the climate characteristics suitable for the growth of Laifeng cigar in different growing stages. The correlation between meteorological factors and meteorological yield was analyzed by using the separation calculation method of meteorological yield and Person correlation coefficient. The results showed that light and temperature were complementary, precipitation was moderate, light was suitable and monthly distribution was good in Laifeng cigar area, which provided excellent growth conditions for Laifeng cigar, and also provided reference for suitable meteorological factors in each period of development. It was proved that the comprehensive meteorological conditions of Laifeng cigar basically well met the demand of cigar quality development index.

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Analysis of Changes in Water and Heat Resources and Agricultural Response in Qingyang Based on 24 Solar Terms

LIU Ying, ZHOU Zhongwen, LIU Donghui, ZHANG Feng, WANG Longfeng, WANG Hongzhi

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (26): 80-87. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0743

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In order to comprehensively grasp the changing law of water and heat resources in Qingyang, improve the level of meteorological forecasting and the ability to guide agricultural production activities, we used the maximum, minimum and average temperature and precipitation data of the 24 solar term days in 8 counties and districts of Qingyang City from 1971 to 2020, and adopted linear trend, polynomial function, correlation analysis, t-test and other methods to study the change rule of climate and response characteristics of Qingyang City based on the 24 solar terms. The results showed that the maximum, minimum and mean temperatures of the 24 solar terms showed an increasing trend and a quasi-normal single-peak distribution, in which the temperatures of the Dashu and Xiaoshu were the highest, and the warming trend was the most significant; the temperature variability and the daily difference of the temperature between the spring and autumn solar terms were large, in which Qingming and Lidong were the two terms with the largest fluctuation of temperature, which was consistent with the period of the early and late frost activities in Qingyang City; the temperature of the phenological solar term, Jingzhe, Qingming, Xiaoman and Mangzhong all showed a fluctuating increase, marking the beginning of different agricultural production periods. After Bailu, the summer heat gradually disappeared, and weather gradually cooled down from Shuangjiang, marking the entry into the wintering period. Qingming-Shuangjiang was Qingyang 's farming period. The precipitation in the 24 solar terms showed a unimodal fluctuation distribution, and the precipitation in Lichun-Dashu gradually increased in one year, and the maximum value appeared in the Liqiu. Guyu-Hanlu solar term was the most precipitation period, accounting for 87% of the total annual precipitation, which was roughly synchronized with the farming period. The precipitation of Chushu-Dahan solar term gradually decreased, and the minimum value appeared in the Winter Solstice; the fastest increase in precipitation was observed in the summer-type solar term, and the fastest decrease in precipitation was observed in the autumn-type solar term. Overall, the increase of heat resources and the fluctuation of precipitation increase, and the same season of rain and heat are conducive to agricultural development; however, the seasonal distribution of precipitation is extremely uneven, and the uncertainty of precipitation in the critical period of crop growth increases the risk of drought. The results of the study are of great practical significance for further improving the forecasting accuracy and guiding agricultural production.

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Characteristics and Defense Measures of Late Frost and Freezing in Longdong Orchards in Spring

CHEN Fan, QIU Ninggang, YANG Yuhui, WANG Juan, DOU Qinqin, LI Meiyu

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (26): 88-97. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0172

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Taking Zhenyuan County of Gansu Province as a representative research area, based on the latest meteorological data and mathematical statistics, this paper analyzes the characteristics of spring low temperature, frost days, degree of frost damage, and orchard damage in the Longdong area of Gansu Province. The results show that although the annual average temperature in Longdong continues to show a warming trend in spring, the extreme minimum temperature in spring is gradually decreasing, and the degree of late frost damage is increasing. Especially since 2010, the late frost end time has been delayed, and the degree of fruit tree frost damage has intensified. Frost has become the most influential disaster factor in the forestry and fruit industry; the low temperature and frost in the spring of Longdong are mainly concentrated in April each year, with the latest delay until late May. Different degrees of frost will occur at different times throughout April, and April is during the flowering and fruiting period of various local forests and fruits, with the largest apple orchard suffering the most severe damage from disasters; whitening the tree body, spraying water on the canopy, irrigating the forest, and spraying antifreeze cannot effectively prevent frost damage during the flowering period, especially severe frost damage, through measures such as delaying the flowering period; The meteorological disaster prevention and reduction monitoring and early warning platform has built a ‘virtual protection network' for Longdong orchards, with a scientific frost prevention model of ‘one orchard, one temperature, one countermeasure’, reducing the impact of late frost damage on the Longdong fruit industry; The perforated smoking bucket and fire wall developed by the Meteorological Science Research Institute of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region are popular among fruit farmers due to their low cost, self-produced raw materials, and convenient operation. They are currently the best way to smoke and prevent frost.

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Supply and Demand Analysis and Benefit Evaluation of Agricultural Meteorological Services in China

ZHANG Xiaomei, ZHAO Rong, WANG Lisheng, LI Xiaozhu, LV Minghui, GAO Yimei

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (8): 72-80. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0145

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In order to further understand the demand and benefits of agricultural meteorological services, the supply and demand of agricultural meteorological service product content, product time effect, service form and service channel are compared and analyzed from the two dimensions of agricultural meteorological service user demand and service supply through statistical analysis, and the contribution rate and economic benefits of agricultural meteorological services are measured on this basis. The results show that: (1) meteorological service for agriculture has a strong decision-making service attribute, and the government/administrative agencies or institutions are the current service subjects. Planting, agricultural insurance and agricultural management are the main service areas of meteorology serving agriculture, especially planting. (2) Agricultural users have a strong demand for meteorological services, the vast majority of agricultural meteorological products can meet user needs, and a few products still have a certain gap with user needs in terms of content, timeliness, service methods and channels. (3) The benefits of agricultural meteorological services are remarkable. The contribution rate of agricultural meteorological services was 4.84%, and the benefit value of national agricultural meteorological services was 347.26 billion yuan. On this basis, four suggestions are put forward in order to provide reference and support for meteorological departments to optimize the supply of agricultural meteorological services.

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Influence of Meteorological Factors on Vertical Changes of DO in Fish Pond in Summer and Its Countermeasures

LIU Kequn, DENG Aijuan, MENG Cuili, LI Wei, TANG Yang

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (8): 81-88. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0151

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The vertical difference of DO in fish ponds is one of the most important indicators for healthy ecological aquaculture. On the basis of vertical observation data of DO, water temperature, light intensity and meteorological observation data of Honghu City from June 21st to July 14th of 2022, the diurnal variation characteristics of DO of fish ponds were analyzed. The statistical analysis method was applied to diagnose the relationship between the difference of DO in the upper and lower layers and meteorological factors excluding human interference. The results showed that: in sunny summer, with the increase of light intensity entering the water, the DO of the upper layer was saturated or supersaturated but the DO of lower layer was still low. The increment of DO in 120 cm layer was not significantly negatively correlated with light intensity. And it was difficult for the fish living at the bottom layer to get enough DO from photosynthetic oxygen production. The vertical gradient of water temperature in fish ponds would hinder the transmission of DO downward. For example, with 1 ℃ difference of water temperature between 30cm and 60cm, the DO difference could be 6.6 mg/L. Under the effect of the wind force, the difference of water temperature, the transmission resistance of DO and the difference of DO concentration became much smaller with the increase of the wind. When the maximum wind speed was more than 9 m/s, the difference of DO was tiny between the upper and lower layer, and it was unnecessary to turn on the artificial oxygenation equipment. So breaking the vertical gradient of water temperature was an important method to ensure a nice ecological environment in fish ponds in summer. The necessity of human intervention was determined by the wind. The weaker the wind, the more intervention required.

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Suitability Evaluation of Tuber Mustard Cultivation in Fuling Based on Grey Relation and Principal Component Analysis

NI Chao, LI Xinjiang, WU Siying, XIANG Tao, XU Dong, ZHUO Chao, LUAN Song, GUO Zhi

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (8): 89-95. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0202

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To study the suitable planting zones of Fulingtuber mustard, its suitable climate was discussed in this study. Based on the grey relational analysis and principal component analysis, combining with 19 bioclimatic indices, suitable planting zones and suitable climate of tuber mustard in Fulingwere evaluated comprehensively. It indicated that the climatic suitability of 421 village communities of Fuling should bedivided into three categories by the equal-weight correlation degree and comprehensive evaluation model.CategoryⅠ (high suitable zone, λ≥0.913) included Zengfu,west of Shituo, Yihe, south of Maan, Longqiao,Chongyi,Jiangbei,northwest of Nantuo, southeast of Baisheng, southest of Zhenxi, part of Baitao, part of Lizhi, part of Jiangdong; category Ⅱ (moderate suitable zone, 0.764≤λ<0.913) included Zengfu, northwest of Shituo, north of Yihe, Lidu, north of Maan, north of Linshi, most of Lizhi, south of Jiangdong, northeast of Baitao, southwest of Jiaoshi; category Ⅲ (low suitable zone, λ<0.764) included Longtan, Tongle, Qingyang, Mawu, Wulingshan, Damu, Luoyun, Jiaoshi, northwest of Baisheng, Northwest of Zhenxi. The northwest and northeast of Fuling are the better zones for the tuber mustard planting.The results can provide a reference for the reasonable layout of the tuber mustardproduction in Fuling, and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry.

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Evaluation of Meteorological Conditions During Main Growth Period of Apple in Zhaoyuan Area in 2022

FAN Xianzheng, WANG Pengkai, ZHANG Juan, LIN Minghua, YANG Jinling, ZHANG Cuiying

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (8): 96-100. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0161

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Utilizing observation data from the apple phenological period in the Zhaoyuan area in 2022, this study investigated the impact of meteorological conditions—specifically light, temperature, and moisture—during critical phenological stages (flowering, fruiting, fruit expansion, and ripening) on apple growth. Additionally, thesoil relative moisture and agro-meteorological characteristics during crucial growth and reproductive phaseswere evaluated. The findings revealed that meteorological conditions throughout the apple's fertility period generally satisfied apple growth requirements, with soil moisture levels being appropriate and temperatures slightly elevated during the flowering phase. The fruit expansion phase experienced higher precipitation, enhancing the orchard's moisture content. Favorable meteorological conditions during the fruit harvesting phase contributed to improved apple ripening, enhancing sweetness, color, and overall quality, making apples ideally suited for harvest. This study aims to identify optimal meteorological conditions throughout the apple fertility period to mitigate potential damage, facilitate the rational utilization of agro-climatic resources, support farmers in scientifically managing apple cultivation, and advance apple production quality and economic returns. This provides reliable meteorological, scientific, and technological backing for future endeavors in tailored meteorological services, offering a scientific basis for reference.

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Characteristics of Drought Changes in Shaanxi Apple Production Area over Last 60 Years Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

ZHANG Yong, HUANG Junfang, LIU Lu, ZHANG Weimin, QU Zhenjiang, LIANG Yi

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (23): 105-117. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0767

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The aim of the research is to clarify the characteristics of drought changes in Shaanxi apple producing areas under the background of climate warming, and provide reference for Shaanxi apple production area to adapt to climate change and scientifically guide drought prevention and damage reduction. Using the monthly precipitation and temperature data from meteorological stations in apple-producing areas in Shaanxi Province over the past 60 years, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for each growing season and stage in Shaanxi apple-producing areas was calculated, and its trend, abrupt change, and periodic variation were analyzed. The research results show that the annual precipitation in the apple-producing areas of Shaanxi has been significantly decreasing over the past 60 years, with a general trend towards aridity during the growing season. The mutation points were mainly concentrated in the 1970s and 1990s, with a more pronounced arid trend after the 1990s. Among them, the eastern Weibei apple-producing area was particularly affected, with an increasing risk of aridity. The period from bud formation to early fruiting stage shows a clear arid trend and an increasing risk of aridity. The mutation points were mostly concentrated in the late 1970s to early 1980s and early 1990s. After the early 1990s, the arid trend had become more apparent, especially in the western and eastern Weibei and Guanzhong producing areas. The coloring-ripening period and winter dormancy period show an overall arid trend, with most mutation points concentrated in the 1970s. Since the mid-to-late 1970s, there had been an arid trend, but the change was not significant in all producing areas. The fruit enlargement period mainly fluctuated without a significant trend. The drought analysis based on SPEI combines rainfall and evapotranspiration, considers longer time scales, and is applicable to different climatic regions, providing a more objective reflection of drought conditions in the apple-producing areas of Shaanxi Province under the background of climate warming. The main influencing factors leading to drought in this region are the decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature caused by climate change.

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Effect of Freeze-thaw Cycles on Distribution of Soil Aggregates and Their Organic Carbon Content in Arable Mollisol

ZHU Shuai, LI Shiyong, JIANG Boyu, ZHAO Wenyi, ZHAO Maojie, CHEN Yimin, SUI Yueyu, JIAO Xiaoguang

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (23): 53-59. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0080

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To investigate the impact of freeze-thaw cycles on soil aggregates and bound carbon in arable mollisol, this study took arable mollisol in Hailun, Heilongjiang Province as the research object. Incubation experiments were conducted to investigate the impact of freeze-thaw frequency on soil aggregates and organic carbon content of arable mollisol at three temperatures: -9, -18 and -26℃. The results indicated that the content of 1-0.5 mm and 0.25-0.053 mm aggregates exhibited significant changes at all three freeze-thaw temperatures with an increase of freeze-thaw frequencies (P<0.05). Compared with single freeze-thaw cycle, after 17 freeze-thaw cycles at the same temperature, the content of 1-0.5 mm aggregates decreased by 68.53%, 10.91% and 40.96% at -9, -18 and -26℃, respectively. The content of 0.25-0.053 mm aggregates increased by 10.93%, 40.89% and 99.72%, respectively. At -9℃, the fractal dimension of soil aggregates significantly increased (P<0.05) from 2.09 to 2.74, while at -18℃ and -26℃, the changes were small, with changes of 0.1 and 0.05, respectively. The bound carbon of soil aggregates did not show significant changes with the increase of freeze-thaw frequency (P>0.05). At -18℃ and -26℃, the <0.053 mm aggregate showed a gradual decreasing trend, with a decrease of 10.31% and 13.73% after 17 freeze-thaw cycles, respectively. The freeze-thaw impact could significantly reduce the stability of soil aggregates in arable mollisol. The increasing freeze-thaw cycles can significantly reduce the content of aggregates by 1-0.5 mm and increase the content of aggregates by 0.25-0.053 mm(P<0.05). Both freeze-thaw frequency and temperature were important factors affecting the stability of soil aggregates.

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Spatiotemporal Variation of Climate Resources and Meteorological Disasters of Facility Agriculture in Henan Province

TAN Yanjing, LI Hui, ZHANG Xihe

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (23): 99-104. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0390

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Based on the daily meteorological data of 95 meteorological stations in Henan Province from 1961 to 2020, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the climate resources and major agrometeorological disasters of facility agriculture were analyzed by using the methods of climate tendency rate and the Matlab and ArcGIS software. The results showed that the average temperature and the average minimum temperature in the growing season of facility agriculture in Henan Province showed a significant increasing trend, while the sunshine hours showed a significant decreasing trend. The spatial distribution showed a zonal distribution. The average temperature and the average minimum temperature increased from north to south, while the sunshine hours decreased from north to south. The number of low temperature stations with the daily average temperature < - 8℃ had a significant decreasing trend, and the number of sunshine days had a significant increasing trend, with the number of snowstorm stations no obvious trend of change. The days of low temperature decreased from north to south, while the days of sparse sunlight increased from north to south, with the spatial distribution of snowstorm days implicit. Arrangements on planning of facility agriculture should be done in Henan Province, because of the diversity of agricultural meteorological disasters.

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Analysis of Impact of Freezing Damage from April 28th to 29th, 2023 on Flowering Period of Apples in Longdong

QIU Ninggang, ZHANG Tianfeng, ZHOU Zhongwen, ZHANG Hongfen, CHEN Fan, SONG Yanan

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (20): 109-114. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0087

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The aims were to optimize apple planting areas, improve varieties, increase the output value of economic forests and fruits, revitalize rural economy, and achieve high-quality development of fruit industry. Taking the severe freezing damage process of apples in Longdong from April 28th to 29th, 2023 as an example, the hourly meteorological element changes during this process in representative areas of apple cultivation in Longdong, such as Qingcheng (Chicheng), Heshui (Hejiapan), Xifeng (Wenquan), Ningxian (Zaosheng, Panke), Zhengning (Gonghe), Zhenyuan (Fangshan), and Pingliang (Jingning) were used to study the correlation between the minimum temperature and low temperature duration of different varieties and different planting areas and the freezing grade of apple stamens by statistical methods. Temperature observation data from 8 national meteorological stations from 1971 to 2023 and apple development period data from Xifeng Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station from 1994 to 2023 were also utilized. The results showed that frost damage had a relatively small impact on early maturing apple varieties such as Gala series, Micui, and Pink Lady, as well as late maturing apple varieties such as Ruiyang, Ruixue, and Ruixiang Hong in Longdong. It had a significant impact on the mid maturity variety Fuji. The apple cultivation area is more severe in mountainous and plain areas than in river areas and along the plateau. Due to climate change, the flowering period of apples in Longdong is advanced. When the temperature drops below -2℃, the degree of frost damage will increase with the decrease of temperature and the increase of duration. During the flowering period of apples, low temperature is the dominant factor affecting frost damage, while the minimum temperature and duration of low temperature are key indicators determining the degree of frost damage. If the temperature continues to fall below the tolerance limit of apple flowering, the occurrence and severity of frost damage will increase with the prolongation of low temperature, and will be verified by actual disaster situations.

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Ecological Suitability Evaluation of Ice Wine Grapes in Xi 'an Section of Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountains Based on AHP-EWM-TOPSIS

WANG Tian, YANG Lian’an, ZHANG Kairan, CHEN Hanling, XU Weixun, SHANG Xiaoqing

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (20): 115-121. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0671

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Ice wine grapes present significant economic benefits when compared to traditional grape varieties, but the planting conditions of ice wine grape were harsh. Thus, evaluating the ecological suitability of cultivating ice wine grapes can promote the planting of ice wine grape and optimize the grape industry structure. According to the growth demand of ice wine grape and natural climate characteristics of the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains, evaluation factors such as the coldest monthly average temperature, effective accumulated temperature of ≥10℃, dryness of growing season, the slope and soil pH were selected to establish the suitability evaluation system of ice wine grape. Based on daily meteorological observation data and ecological data of Xi'an section of the northern foot of the Qinling Mountains from 2000 to 2021, the entropy evaluation method (EWM) improved by hierarchical analysis method (AHP) and TOPSIS were used to establish a comprehensive zoning evaluation model for ice wine grape cultivation in this study. The spatial distribution of the three major indicators of climate, topography and soil affecting ice wine grape cultivation was analyzed. Through statistical analysis, the planting areas were classified into four levels, including most suitable, suitable, moderately suitable, and unsuitable, so as to homogenize the interior of each grade as much as possible. The zoning results were basically consistent with the actual situation. This method takes into account the combined effects of climatic indicators and geographical factors, and can better reflect the distribution of ecologically advantageous areas for ice wine grape cultivation in Xi'an section of the northern foot of the Qinling Mountains. It has important reference significance for the regional layout and scientific planning of ice wine grape cultivation.

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Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Spring Wheat Moisture Gain and Loss Rate in Qinghai Province Under Climate Change

GUO Shousheng, ZHANG Chengyu, MA Xinrui, ZHAO Mengfan, LEI Chunkai

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (20): 122-129. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0619

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In order to scientifically evaluate the agricultural climate change in spring wheat planting areas of Qinghai Province and rationally utilize the precipitation resources, the article analyzed the variation trend of climatic elements, the temporal and spatial characteristics of the moisture gain and deficit rate during the reproductive period of spring wheat in Qinghai Province from 1991 to 2021 by using linear tendency estimation, mutation test, and spatial interpolation, and the relationship between each meteorological factor and moisture gain and deficit rate was analyzed by path method. The results showed that during the growth period of spring wheat in Qinghai Province, the air temperature, ≥0℃ cumulative temperature and precipitation increased at a rate of 0.3 ℃/10 a, 50.7 ℃/10 a, and 23.6 mm/10 a, respectively, and the hours of sunshine decreased at the rate of 66.6 h/10 a, and the trend of changes in the various stages of reproduction was significant different; the full-birth period, the stem and leaf growth period, the gestation and anthesis period, and the grouting and maturity stage moisture gain and deficit rate increased by 0.864, 1.020, 0.464 and 1.771 percent per year, and the increase was not significant at the stage of pregnancy and flowering, and the moisture gain and deficit rate of the whole reproductive stage changed abruptly in 2011; from the results of regional distribution, the moisture gain and deficit rate gradually decreased from east to west, and the moisture deficit in Hehuang Valley was less, followed by the Qinghai Lake Basin, and the moisture deficit in the Chaidamu Basin was serious; Precipitation had a significant positive effect on the moisture gain and deficit rate, while sunshine, wind speed and minimum air temperature had a significant negative effect on the moisture gain and deficit rate. The climate of spring wheat planting area in Qinghai Province was warm and humid, and the moisture deficit of spring wheat was serious and showed a trend of slowing down. The results of the study are used to grasp the changing law of climate in spring wheat planting area of Qinghai, and to improve the ability to cope with the risk of spring wheat drought disaster.

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Analysis of Meteorological Conditions and Evaluation Model for Red Cartridge Kiwifruit Black Spot Disease

SHI Yan, CHI Zaixiang, BAI Hui, XU Yi, LI Xiuya, ZHENG Guoyi

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (20): 99-108. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0663

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With the continuous expansion of planting scale of kiwifruit in Guizhou, the harm degree of black spot disease of kiwifruit is increasing, and the economic loss is also increasing. This paper analyzed the characteristics of continuous rainy weather in May-July from 2020 to 2022 by using the survey data of 20 red cartridge kiwifruit bases such as Guizhou Miluo and their fruit black spot disease, and the daily average temperature, precipitation, average relative humidity and average low cloud cover during the growth period of red cartridge kiwifruit from May 1 to July 31. The quantitative relationship between black spot disease and continuous rainy weather was discussed according to the occurrence place and incidence of black spot disease, and the threshold of continuous rainy weather was determined. The results showed that black spot disease of red cartridge kiwifruit was closely related to varieties. During the growth period of red cartridge kiwifruit from May to July, when the continuous rainy weather was 15 days and above, the daily average temperature was 20.0℃ and above, the daily average relative humidity was 90% and above, and the daily average low cloud cover was 0.90 and above, black spot disease would definitely occur in red cartridge kiwifruit. This index can be used as a meteorological early warning index for the occurrence of black spot of red cartridge kiwifruit. The meteorological disaster assessment model of red cartridge kiwifruit black spot was established to provide scientific reference for the meteorological assessment service of red cartridge kiwifruit production.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Yield of Pear Trees in Tianshui of Gansu Province in Recent 40a

LIU Liang, XU Yunkai, LI Lin, JIA Bin, LI Hongwei

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (7): 89-93. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0099

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Tianshui City of Gansu Province has become a pear fruit production base in the dry and cold region of northern China, due to its location in the hinterland of the Loess Plateau in central Gansu, with abundant light and heat, and deep soil layers. Affected by global climate change, the harm of meteorological disasters in Tianshui has significantly increased. Due to the tall height, early flowering period and long growth cycle of pear trees, their growth, development, and yield are more susceptible to the impact of climate change. In order to understand the impact of climate change on the total yield of pear trees, using statistical methods, this study analyzed the main agrometeorological conditions influencing pear tree yield in Tianshui over the past 40 years. The study identified the significant agrometeorological factors affecting pear yields such as the precipitation in early autumn (the last ten days of September), average temperature in mid-spring (the first ten days of April), and sunshine hours in late spring (the first ten days and middle ten days of May). Additionally, the substantial increase in temperatures during autumn and winter, coupled with early spring arid conditions, exacerbated nutrient depletion in fruit trees and hindered the normal development of flower buds, thereby impacting pear tree yields. The study results provide a decision-making support for effective utilization of climate resources and development of industrial layouts in fruit tree production and management departments.

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Effects of Meteorological Elements on Dry Matter Weight of Spring Maize in Semi-Arid Areas and Its Stress Effect

ZHOU Zhongwen, LIU Ying, QIU Ninggang, ZHANG Tianfeng, ZHANG Wen, DU Jun

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (7): 94-100. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0179

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In order to master the effects of climate change on the growth, development and yield formation of dryland maize and to provide a theoretical basis for spring maize to cope with extreme climate and disaster prevention and mitigation in semi-arid regions, the methods of linear regression, polynomial function and correlation analysis were adopted to study the stress effects of meteorological factors on dry matter accumulation of maize by using the dry matter observation data and meteorological factor data of maize for 29 consecutive years from 1994 to 2022. The results showed that the dry matter accumulation of maize fluctuated greatly between years in the past 29 years, and the effects of climate change on dry matter accumulation and growth rate were inconsistent. Meteorological factors had less influence on dry matter weight during the nutritional growth period and more influence during the reproductive growth period; precipitation was the most important meteorological factor affecting the dry matter weight of maize in semi-arid areas, while cumulative temperature and sunshine could basically meet the needs of maize growth and development, and the amount of dry matter accumulation was mainly affected by the precipitation from the seven-leaf stage to the tasseling stage, the cumulative temperature from the tasseling stage to the milk stage ≥10℃ and the sunshine hours from the tasseling stage to the maturing stage, and the drought and early autumn rains were the major stress factors for the maize in Longdong area; the dry matter weight was mainly determined by the reasonable matching degree of light, heat and water after the elongation stage, and the critical period of effective dry matter weight growth was from 10 days after flowering to 60 days after flowering. The accumulation of effective dry matter weight was directly affected by grouting speed and grouting period. This study can provide a reference for coping with climate change in dry crop maize in the northwest Loess Plateau under the background of climate change.

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