Agrometeorology

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Analysis of Impact of Freezing Damage from April 28th to 29th, 2023 on Flowering Period of Apples in Longdong

QIU Ninggang, ZHANG Tianfeng, ZHOU Zhongwen, ZHANG Hongfen, CHEN Fan, SONG Yanan

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (20): 109-114. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2024-0087

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The aims were to optimize apple planting areas, improve varieties, increase the output value of economic forests and fruits, revitalize rural economy, and achieve high-quality development of fruit industry. Taking the severe freezing damage process of apples in Longdong from April 28th to 29th, 2023 as an example, the hourly meteorological element changes during this process in representative areas of apple cultivation in Longdong, such as Qingcheng (Chicheng), Heshui (Hejiapan), Xifeng (Wenquan), Ningxian (Zaosheng, Panke), Zhengning (Gonghe), Zhenyuan (Fangshan), and Pingliang (Jingning) were used to study the correlation between the minimum temperature and low temperature duration of different varieties and different planting areas and the freezing grade of apple stamens by statistical methods. Temperature observation data from 8 national meteorological stations from 1971 to 2023 and apple development period data from Xifeng Agricultural Meteorological Experimental Station from 1994 to 2023 were also utilized. The results showed that frost damage had a relatively small impact on early maturing apple varieties such as Gala series, Micui, and Pink Lady, as well as late maturing apple varieties such as Ruiyang, Ruixue, and Ruixiang Hong in Longdong. It had a significant impact on the mid maturity variety Fuji. The apple cultivation area is more severe in mountainous and plain areas than in river areas and along the plateau. Due to climate change, the flowering period of apples in Longdong is advanced. When the temperature drops below -2℃, the degree of frost damage will increase with the decrease of temperature and the increase of duration. During the flowering period of apples, low temperature is the dominant factor affecting frost damage, while the minimum temperature and duration of low temperature are key indicators determining the degree of frost damage. If the temperature continues to fall below the tolerance limit of apple flowering, the occurrence and severity of frost damage will increase with the prolongation of low temperature, and will be verified by actual disaster situations.

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Ecological Suitability Evaluation of Ice Wine Grapes in Xi 'an Section of Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountains Based on AHP-EWM-TOPSIS

WANG Tian, YANG Lian’an, ZHANG Kairan, CHEN Hanling, XU Weixun, SHANG Xiaoqing

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (20): 115-121. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0671

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Ice wine grapes present significant economic benefits when compared to traditional grape varieties, but the planting conditions of ice wine grape were harsh. Thus, evaluating the ecological suitability of cultivating ice wine grapes can promote the planting of ice wine grape and optimize the grape industry structure. According to the growth demand of ice wine grape and natural climate characteristics of the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains, evaluation factors such as the coldest monthly average temperature, effective accumulated temperature of ≥10℃, dryness of growing season, the slope and soil pH were selected to establish the suitability evaluation system of ice wine grape. Based on daily meteorological observation data and ecological data of Xi'an section of the northern foot of the Qinling Mountains from 2000 to 2021, the entropy evaluation method (EWM) improved by hierarchical analysis method (AHP) and TOPSIS were used to establish a comprehensive zoning evaluation model for ice wine grape cultivation in this study. The spatial distribution of the three major indicators of climate, topography and soil affecting ice wine grape cultivation was analyzed. Through statistical analysis, the planting areas were classified into four levels, including most suitable, suitable, moderately suitable, and unsuitable, so as to homogenize the interior of each grade as much as possible. The zoning results were basically consistent with the actual situation. This method takes into account the combined effects of climatic indicators and geographical factors, and can better reflect the distribution of ecologically advantageous areas for ice wine grape cultivation in Xi'an section of the northern foot of the Qinling Mountains. It has important reference significance for the regional layout and scientific planning of ice wine grape cultivation.

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Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Spring Wheat Moisture Gain and Loss Rate in Qinghai Province Under Climate Change

GUO Shousheng, ZHANG Chengyu, MA Xinrui, ZHAO Mengfan, LEI Chunkai

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (20): 122-129. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0619

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In order to scientifically evaluate the agricultural climate change in spring wheat planting areas of Qinghai Province and rationally utilize the precipitation resources, the article analyzed the variation trend of climatic elements, the temporal and spatial characteristics of the moisture gain and deficit rate during the reproductive period of spring wheat in Qinghai Province from 1991 to 2021 by using linear tendency estimation, mutation test, and spatial interpolation, and the relationship between each meteorological factor and moisture gain and deficit rate was analyzed by path method. The results showed that during the growth period of spring wheat in Qinghai Province, the air temperature, ≥0℃ cumulative temperature and precipitation increased at a rate of 0.3 ℃/10 a, 50.7 ℃/10 a, and 23.6 mm/10 a, respectively, and the hours of sunshine decreased at the rate of 66.6 h/10 a, and the trend of changes in the various stages of reproduction was significant different; the full-birth period, the stem and leaf growth period, the gestation and anthesis period, and the grouting and maturity stage moisture gain and deficit rate increased by 0.864, 1.020, 0.464 and 1.771 percent per year, and the increase was not significant at the stage of pregnancy and flowering, and the moisture gain and deficit rate of the whole reproductive stage changed abruptly in 2011; from the results of regional distribution, the moisture gain and deficit rate gradually decreased from east to west, and the moisture deficit in Hehuang Valley was less, followed by the Qinghai Lake Basin, and the moisture deficit in the Chaidamu Basin was serious; Precipitation had a significant positive effect on the moisture gain and deficit rate, while sunshine, wind speed and minimum air temperature had a significant negative effect on the moisture gain and deficit rate. The climate of spring wheat planting area in Qinghai Province was warm and humid, and the moisture deficit of spring wheat was serious and showed a trend of slowing down. The results of the study are used to grasp the changing law of climate in spring wheat planting area of Qinghai, and to improve the ability to cope with the risk of spring wheat drought disaster.

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Analysis of Meteorological Conditions and Evaluation Model for Red Cartridge Kiwifruit Black Spot Disease

SHI Yan, CHI Zaixiang, BAI Hui, XU Yi, LI Xiuya, ZHENG Guoyi

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (20): 99-108. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0663

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With the continuous expansion of planting scale of kiwifruit in Guizhou, the harm degree of black spot disease of kiwifruit is increasing, and the economic loss is also increasing. This paper analyzed the characteristics of continuous rainy weather in May-July from 2020 to 2022 by using the survey data of 20 red cartridge kiwifruit bases such as Guizhou Miluo and their fruit black spot disease, and the daily average temperature, precipitation, average relative humidity and average low cloud cover during the growth period of red cartridge kiwifruit from May 1 to July 31. The quantitative relationship between black spot disease and continuous rainy weather was discussed according to the occurrence place and incidence of black spot disease, and the threshold of continuous rainy weather was determined. The results showed that black spot disease of red cartridge kiwifruit was closely related to varieties. During the growth period of red cartridge kiwifruit from May to July, when the continuous rainy weather was 15 days and above, the daily average temperature was 20.0℃ and above, the daily average relative humidity was 90% and above, and the daily average low cloud cover was 0.90 and above, black spot disease would definitely occur in red cartridge kiwifruit. This index can be used as a meteorological early warning index for the occurrence of black spot of red cartridge kiwifruit. The meteorological disaster assessment model of red cartridge kiwifruit black spot was established to provide scientific reference for the meteorological assessment service of red cartridge kiwifruit production.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Yield of Pear Trees in Tianshui of Gansu Province in Recent 40a

LIU Liang, XU Yunkai, LI Lin, JIA Bin, LI Hongwei

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (7): 89-93. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0099

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Tianshui City of Gansu Province has become a pear fruit production base in the dry and cold region of northern China, due to its location in the hinterland of the Loess Plateau in central Gansu, with abundant light and heat, and deep soil layers. Affected by global climate change, the harm of meteorological disasters in Tianshui has significantly increased. Due to the tall height, early flowering period and long growth cycle of pear trees, their growth, development, and yield are more susceptible to the impact of climate change. In order to understand the impact of climate change on the total yield of pear trees, using statistical methods, this study analyzed the main agrometeorological conditions influencing pear tree yield in Tianshui over the past 40 years. The study identified the significant agrometeorological factors affecting pear yields such as the precipitation in early autumn (the last ten days of September), average temperature in mid-spring (the first ten days of April), and sunshine hours in late spring (the first ten days and middle ten days of May). Additionally, the substantial increase in temperatures during autumn and winter, coupled with early spring arid conditions, exacerbated nutrient depletion in fruit trees and hindered the normal development of flower buds, thereby impacting pear tree yields. The study results provide a decision-making support for effective utilization of climate resources and development of industrial layouts in fruit tree production and management departments.

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Effects of Meteorological Elements on Dry Matter Weight of Spring Maize in Semi-Arid Areas and Its Stress Effect

ZHOU Zhongwen, LIU Ying, QIU Ninggang, ZHANG Tianfeng, ZHANG Wen, DU Jun

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (7): 94-100. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0179

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In order to master the effects of climate change on the growth, development and yield formation of dryland maize and to provide a theoretical basis for spring maize to cope with extreme climate and disaster prevention and mitigation in semi-arid regions, the methods of linear regression, polynomial function and correlation analysis were adopted to study the stress effects of meteorological factors on dry matter accumulation of maize by using the dry matter observation data and meteorological factor data of maize for 29 consecutive years from 1994 to 2022. The results showed that the dry matter accumulation of maize fluctuated greatly between years in the past 29 years, and the effects of climate change on dry matter accumulation and growth rate were inconsistent. Meteorological factors had less influence on dry matter weight during the nutritional growth period and more influence during the reproductive growth period; precipitation was the most important meteorological factor affecting the dry matter weight of maize in semi-arid areas, while cumulative temperature and sunshine could basically meet the needs of maize growth and development, and the amount of dry matter accumulation was mainly affected by the precipitation from the seven-leaf stage to the tasseling stage, the cumulative temperature from the tasseling stage to the milk stage ≥10℃ and the sunshine hours from the tasseling stage to the maturing stage, and the drought and early autumn rains were the major stress factors for the maize in Longdong area; the dry matter weight was mainly determined by the reasonable matching degree of light, heat and water after the elongation stage, and the critical period of effective dry matter weight growth was from 10 days after flowering to 60 days after flowering. The accumulation of effective dry matter weight was directly affected by grouting speed and grouting period. This study can provide a reference for coping with climate change in dry crop maize in the northwest Loess Plateau under the background of climate change.

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Analysis of Rice Yield Increase Potential in Southeast Heilongjiang Province Under the Background of Climate Change

WANG Ping, ZHOU Baocai, HAN Junjie, XU Yongqing, JI Yanghui, LI Xiufen, JIANG Lixia, NA Rongbo

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (17): 106-113. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0844

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The purpose of this study is to calculate the climate production potential of rice in southeast Heilongjiang Province, and to analyze its yield increase potential, so as to provide scientific basis for rational and effective utilization of climatic resources and improvement of rice productivity. Based on the observed data during the growing period, the critical temperature indexes for sowing, transplanting and ripening of rice were calculated. The climate potential of rice was calculated by using the stepwise correction method recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and then the space for increasing yield was calculated and its multi-year change was analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows. The critical temperatures of sowing, transplanting and ripening were 5℃, 12.5℃ and 10℃. In Wuchang, Binxian and Ning 'an, the climatic potential production of rice increased from sowing to ripening and transplanting to ripening. The climatic potential production of rice increased in most areas, and climate warming was beneficial to rice production. From 1961 to 2020, the potential of yield per unit area in the southeast of Heilongjiang Province showed the trend of first decline and then rise from sowing to ripening, and 2009 was the turning point of decline to rise, and the trend of increasing yield per unit area from transplanting to ripening also showed the trend of first decline and then rise, and 2008 was the turning point of decline to rise. In the recent 60 years, with climate warming, the actual productivity of rice in the southeast of Heilongjiang Province has gradually increased, that is, the actual yield per unit area of rice has gradually increased, but there is still a big gap with its climate production potential, and there is still a huge space for rice production. The results can provide scientific basis for rational distribution of rice production and full and effective utilization of climate resources.

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Climate Suitability Evaluation of Winter Wheat in Semi-Arid Area of Loess Plateau: A Case Study of Tongwei County

JIAO Run’an, LI Xuhua, QI Yue, LEI Jun, GOU Zhiwen, ZANG Yajun, XUE Xiao

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (17): 73-80. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0419

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Climate suitability can represent the degree of influence of climate conditions on crop growth and development. Based on the meteorological data and agricultural meteorological observation data of the last 40 years in Tongwei County in the semi-arid region of the Loess Plateau, and the fuzzy mathematical method, the climate suitability of winter wheat during the whole growth period in semi-arid rain-fed agricultural area of Loess Plateau was evaluated according to the requirements of temperature, moisture and light in each development period of winter wheat. The results showed that the temperature suitability of winter wheat during the whole growth period in Tongwei County was 0.58 in the past 40 years, and the temperature suitability of winter wheat during the overwintering period was the highest (0.95). The temperature suitability of three-leaf stage to overwintering stage was low (-0.42), and the inter-annual difference was small. The temperature suitability of winter wheat during the whole growth period increased at a rate of 0.019/10a. Water suitability was 0.46, the highest water suitability was 0.66 for filling stage to ripening, followed by 0.63 for re-greening to jointing, and the water suitability increased at a rate of 0.017/10a during the whole growth period. The light suitability was 0.62, the highest light suitability was 0.68 from overwintering stage and re-greening stage to jointing stage, and the lowest was 0.51 from filling stage to maturity stage. The light suitability increased by 0.011/10a in the whole growth stage. The comprehensive suitability was 0.54, the highest was 0.70 at the re-greening to jointing stage, and the lowest was -0.36 at the three-leaf to overwintering stage. The comprehensive suitability increased at the rate of 0.014/10a during the whole growth period. Yield was significantly correlated with temperature suitability from heading stage to milk maturity stage, water suitability from milk maturity stage to maturity stage and comprehensive suitability from filling stage to maturity stage. The climatic suitability can accurately reflect the change of meteorological conditions during the growing period of winter wheat in the semi-arid of the Loess Plateau.

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Variation Characteristics and Trend Prediction of Winter Agroclimatic Resources in Baise City

ZHANG Huijing, ZHOU Xiuhua, QIN Chuan

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (17): 81-88. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0754

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To adapt to climate change and develop and utilize winter agroclimatic resources in Baise city properly, based on the daily observation data of average temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration from 12 national meteorological stations during December 1970 to February 2023 in Baise City, the distribution characteristics, evolution and future change trend of winter agroclimatic resources in Baise City were analyzed by using linear trend analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test, wavelet analysis. The results indicated that: (1) Baise City had abundant heat resources in winter. The average temperature and accumulated temperature ≥10℃ were the highest in Youjiang River Valley and the lowest in northern mountainous area. The precipitation was more in the south and less in the north. Sunshine duration in the north and middle of Youjiang River Valley were generally higher than those in other areas. (2) From 1971 to 2023, the winter climate of Baise showed a warm and humid trend, and the average winter temperature and accumulated temperature ≥10℃ showed a significant upward trend in general, with the rates of 0.18 ℃/10a and 27.30 ℃·d/10a respectively, and both showed an abrupt increase around 1991. Precipitation showed a significant increasing trend with a rate of 5.27 mm/10a, with a sudden increase in 2010. The sunshine duration in winter showed a significant decreasing trend, and the change rate was -10.36h /10a. In the study period, the four factors all had an interdecadal scale change cycle of 10 to 16 years. (3) The results of projection show that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the average winter temperature and accumulated temperature ≥10℃ in Baise City during 2024-2080 show a significant upward trend, while the trend of precipitation is not significant. Sunshine duration increases significantly under RCP4.5. Climate warming brings better heat conditions to winter agricultural production in Baise City, but the fluctuation of precipitation and sunshine duration is great, which increases the instability of agricultural production.

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Meteorological Conditions for Floating Seedling Rearing of Tobacco in Solar Greenhouse

REN Heng, SHEN Yu, XIA Jin, DU Shiye, REN Yongjian, LIU Shaoxia, ZENG Fanrui, LIU Qiao

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (17): 89-96. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0580

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In order to understand the requirements of meteorological conditions in different growth stages of tobacco seedling bed, microclimate stations were set up in three sunlight greenhouses with different altitudes. Leaf age and physiological indexes of tobacco leaf were observed in combination with the sunshine and total radiation exposure data of tobacco leaf automatic weather stations outside the shed, and the requirements of temperature, humidity and light on seedlings at different altitudes were analyzed. The results showed that the ecological factors affecting the growth of seedlings in sunlight greenhouse were temperature > water > light. It takes 14-19 days from seeding to emergence, and about 4 days for each true leaf. The average temperature of the whole seedling period is 12.0-15.5℃, the relative humidity is controlled at 72.4%, the average temperature of nutrient solution is 11.0-15.1℃, and the accumulated temperature required for the seedling period is 555.1-640.8℃. The sunshine duration is 247.0 -293.0 hours, and the total radiation exposure is 550.5-686.7MJ/m². In this paper, temperature, humidity and light requirements of tobacco seedlings at different altitudes are studied and summarized, which provide theoretical support for meteorological services during the whole growth period of tobacco planting.

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Risk Analysis of Rainstorm Disaster in Dandong Blueberry Ripening Period Based on Poisson Distribution

DONG Haitao, SHAN Lulu, MENG Xin, LI Runan, FANG Yihe

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (17): 97-105. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0589

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In order to understand the influence of rainstorm disaster on blueberry ripening period, the meteorological data of blueberry ripening period at four stations in Dandong Region from 1991 to 2020 were used. Taking the rainstorm continuous for 3 days or more (daily precipitation ≥0.1 mm and at least 1 day precipitation ≥50 mm) as the disaster index, considering the frequency, intensity and duration of the rainstorm comprehensively, the disaster grades of light, moderate and severe rainstorm were worked out, and the change rule of blueberry rainstorm disaster was analyzed by the disaster frequency and station-to-station ratio. The results showed that during the 30-year period, the heavy rain disasters in Dandong showed a decreasing trend, and the frequency of heavy rain increased in the south and decreased in the north, especially in Fengcheng, the frequency tendency rate of rainstorm disaster was 0.19 times/10 a(p<0.01). The risk of heavy rain disaster was low in the early maturing period of 30 years, and the risk probability of light and moderate heavy rain disaster was close to or more than once in 20 years (≥5%), and no serious disaster occurred, the probability of occurrence of both mild and severe disasters was more than 10 years (≥10%). Kuandian Manchu Autonomous County is a high-risk area for heavy rain disasters. The disaster area is wide, the frequency is high and the intensity is heavy. The probability of occurrence of the three types of heavy rain disasters is more than once in ten years (≥10%).The results provide a scientific basis for dealing with the heavy rain disaster during the mature period of blueberry.

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Analysis of Causes of Persistent Strong Convective Weather in Guanzhong Region and Its Impact on Agriculture

WANG Jinting, GAO Meng, QIAO Danyang, LIU Fan

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (5): 67-74. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0124

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The study aims to explore the causes and mechanisms of the occurrence of rare persistent strong convective weather in Guanzhong region and objectively analyze the impact of this process on agriculture. In this paper, the weather situation, water vapor flux dispersion, pseudo-equivalent temperature and environmental parameters of a rare persistent strong weather in July 2021, as well as the meteorological drought index affecting agricultural production and the impact depth of wind and hail on economic forestry and fruits were quantified and objectively analyzed using the new generation of Chinese global atmospheric/land surface reanalysis products, data of conventional high-altitude and ground-based observations, and artificial observation of hail. The results showed that the persistent strong convective weather in Guanzhong region was influenced by the atmospheric long-wave adjustment, with the high altitude cold advection forcing class configuration in the early stage and the low-level warm advection forcing class in the later stage; the transport of low-level easterly airflow, southwest warm and humid airflow at the periphery of the substratum, obvious water vapor convergence and the expansion of the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature dense area and the increase of intensity caused obvious potential instability to provide good water vapor and thermal conditions for the occurrence of strong convective weather at this time. Larger convective effective potential energy, unstable stratification, increased vertical wind shear and appropriate special layer height were favorable potential for the occurrence of strong convective weather. The occurrence of strong convective weather made a positive contribution to drought relief and effective improvement of soil moisture, but local heavy precipitation and windy hail weather caused lodging of some crops and waterlogging or excessive soil wetness in farmland in Guanzhong, which was not conducive to root respiration and nutrient transport of shallow-rooted crops such as corn and kiwi, affecting normal plant growth. A variety of economic forest fruits in the Guanzhong area showed an impact depth of 0.07-0.32 cm and were damaged by shedding. The research results provided the reliable basis for further strengthening agricultural meteorological services and disaster prevention and reduction.

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Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Climate Factors During Growth Period of Flue-Cured Tobacco Fields in Nanping

WU Ping, CHEN Zhihou, LIN Yong, CHEN Aiguo, ZHENG Jiayu, ZHENG Guojian

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (14): 90-98. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0486

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Climate has an important impact on the growth of flue-cured tobacco and tobacco leaf quality. In order to clarify the change characteristics of climate elements in the field period of flue-cured tobacco in Nanping tobacco-growing area, this study used the climate data of growing period of tobacco (mid-January to mid-July) from 1971 to 2019 provided by Nanping Meteorological Bureau, and the Mann-Kendall method was used to detect abrupt change of climate, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of typical climatic elements such as temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration were analyzed. The results showed that the interannual sunshine hours tended to decrease and the temperature and precipitation tended to increase during field growing period of flue-cured tobacco, and the inflection point was in 1995. The abrupt change of climate mainly occurred in the air temperature and sunshine hours of spring tobacco, and occurred in the mid-1970s and early 2000s respectively, the precipitation factors did not change abruptly. The temperature in the field growing period of early spring tobacco and spring tobacco was lower in the north area, and higher in the south and middle area. Precipitation was higher in the north area, but lower in the south and middle area. The sunshine hours increased gradually from west to east or southeast. With the growth period of flue-cured tobacco progress, the temperature increased gradually, the sunshine hours increased rapidly from late June, and the heavy precipitation was mainly concentrated in June. The difference of sunshine hours between early spring tobacco and spring tobacco field growth period was mainly in the root expanding stage and mature stage. The research results are of great significance to the rational use of climate resources, avoiding disadvantages and improving the yield and quality of tobacco leaves.

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Analysis of Agrometeorological Factors of Prunus domestica L. Freeze Injury in Heshuo of Xinjiang

Reyanguli AIZEZI

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (14): 99-103. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0480

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In recent years, the phenomenon of increasing extreme weather (climate) events, frequent natural disasters has been widely presented around the world. The study aims to scientifically understand the effect of freezing injury of Prunus domestica L. in Heshuo, reduce the loss of florescence due to freezing injury, and improve the planting benefit. This article used daily weather data during 1991-2023 in national ground meteorological station of Heshuo and investigation data about freezing injury of Prunus domestica L. from 2003 to 2023, the factors such as the happening time, type, and limit temperature were analyzed by making the investigation of historical disaster conditions. The characteristics of meteorological factors were analyzed to study the relationship between freeze injury and meteorological factors. The results showed that: (1) the annual average temperature, extremely maximum and minimum temperature in Heshuo County increased from 1991 to 2023, the climate trend rates for annual average temperature, extremely maximum and minimum temperature were 0.20 ℃/10a, 0.38 ℃/10a and 0.26 ℃/10a^-1respectively; (2) the date of germination, sepal showing, petal baring, initial blooming, full blooming was ahead of time by 3.2 to 4.6 d/10 a(P<0.01); (3) the main reason for the freezing injury of Prunus domestica L. was the extreme minimum temperature in winter, strong wind and serious sandstorm, cold spell duration days, severe cooling, and heavy snowfall. The results of this study provide a reference for the monitoring and early warning of freezing damage and disaster prevention and mitigation of Prunus domestica L., and provide a theoretical reference for the rational cultivation and management, so as to promote the healthy development of Prunus domestica L. industry.

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Climate Change in Shiyang River Basin and Its Influence on Vegetation Index

WANG Heling, DING Wenkui, LI Xingyu, YANG Xiaoling, GUO Limei, ZHANG Jinxiu

Journal of Agriculture 2024, 14 (4): 83-92. DOI: 10.11923/j.issn.2095-4050.cjas2023-0134

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The influence of climate change on vegetation cover is important for ecological environment protection in arid areas. Based on data of monthly temperatures, precipitation, sunshine, evaporation and NASA GIMMS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2020, annual and seasonal variations trend of temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, evaporation and NDVI were analyzed by using linear trend method, then effect of climate elements change on NDVI change were studied by correlation coefficient method. The results showed that annual temperature showed a clear upward trend in Shiyang River Basin and various regions. Temperature in spring, summer and autumn showed an upward trend, and it showed a downward trend in winter (except Minqin). Annual precipitation in total catchment area and Yongchang, Gulang and Tianzhu showed an increasing trend, while Minqin and Liangzhou showed a decreasing trend. Change trend of precipitation in each season was not consistent. Annual sunshine duration showed a decreasing trend in total catchment area and other places except Gulang, and variation trend of sunshine duration in each season was very inconsistent. Annual evaporation showed an increasing trend in total catchment area and other places except Liangzhou, and variation trend of evaporation in each season was not consistent. Annual NDVI in Shiyang River Basin and various regions showed a significant growth trend. Each season NDVI also showed an increasing trend except Liangzhou in spring. Annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation were basically positively correlated with NDVI, and temperature and precipitation had a positive contribution to NDVI. Correlation between sunshine duration, evaporation and NDVI of annual and seasonal was quite different. In general, sunshine duration had a negative contribution to NDVI, and evaporation had a positive contribution to NDVI. Research results will provide scientific reference for improving utilization rate of climate resources, adjusting planting structure and improving ecological environment in Shiyang River Basin.

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Changes of Temperature Suitability of Kiwifruit in Shaanxi Province Under Background of Climate Warming

LIU Jianchen, QU Zhenjiang, HUANG Junfang, ZHANG Yong, LIU Lu, LIANG Yi

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (11): 103-111. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0572

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The aims are to analyze the changes in temperature suitability of Shaanxi kiwifruit under the background of climate warming, provide scientific basis and reference for Shaanxi kiwifruit industry to adapt to climate change, and enhance the sustainable development ability of Shaanxi kiwifruit industry. Based on the temperature suitability function for the entire growth period of kiwifruit in Shaanxi, this study analyzed and evaluated the temperature suitability of kiwifruit in representative counties of Huaxian, Meixian, and Chenggu from 1961 to 2010, and estimated the temperature suitability of kiwifruit in Shaanxi from 2016 to 2060 using climate change prediction data under RCPs emission scenarios. The research results showed that the temperature suitability of Shaanxi kiwifruit showed a slow fluctuation trend of 2-3 years from 1961 to 2010, and the temperature suitability of kiwifruit showed an increasing trend after 1992; in the future, under medium and high emission scenarios, the temperature suitability of Shaanxi kiwifruit will show a slow fluctuating upward trend, and the trend intensity of kiwifruit temperature suitability under high emission scenarios will be stronger than that under medium emission scenarios; under the medium and high emission scenarios, the degree distribution of temperature suitability of kiwifruit in Shaanxi will move northward to different degrees compared with 1961 to 2010. Except that the temperature suitability of kiwifruit in the eastern part of Weibei has increased significantly, the temperature suitability of kiwifruit in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi has decreased, and the original scope of suitable areas has shrunk significantly, especially under the high emission scenario. In the future, development of Shaanxi kiwifruit industry can consider the moderate northward movement of planting and the threat of future temperature increase to the kiwifruit industry. In particular, there is a risk that the temperature suitability of kiwifruit in Guanzhong and southern Shaanxi kiwifruit producing areas will decline, and the threat of high temperature heat damage to kiwifruit may gradually increase. The research results can provide a certain reference for the adjustment of the layout of the Shaanxi kiwifruit industry in the future.

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Assessment Regionalization of Precipitation and Drought Risk in Baoshan Tobacco Planting Area

ZHONG Yanhua, JING Yuanshu, WEI Yuan, LI Weitao, JI Mengyu

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (11): 112-120. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0379

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Based on the daily precipitation and temperature data of 11 flue-cured tobacco meteorological stations in Baoshan County from 2015 to 2020, the rainfall risk index and its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed during the growth and development of Baoshan flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan Province, and the drought risk assessment model was constructed to provide a basis for the formulation of safe production and risk prevention strategies for Baoshan flue-cured tobacco. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation and drought risk in Baoshan tobacco planting area were analyzed by using geographic information system software ArcGis and relevant mathematical statistics methods such as climate tendency rate and trend coefficient. Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and drought risk assessment model, drought hazard assessment regionalization in Baoshan tobacco planting area was realized with the help of GIS platform. The results showed that the annual precipitation of Longling and Tengchong ranged from 1060 to 1865.6mm and 804 to 1348.5mm respectively, both of which were more than two times of the normal water requirement of flue-cured tobacco. The Houqiao area in Tengchong had the highest climatic tendency rate, which passed 0.01 significance test and showed a significant increasing trend year by year. The drought risk of flue-cured tobacco in vigorous growth period mainly occurred in central and eastern Baoshan. The drought risk near old city of Shidian and Longyang District was the highest, reaching above the severe risk. The drought risk in the central and eastern parts of Baoshan was below the medium risk, which was conducive to flue-cured tobacco planting. This paper studied and clarified the important influence of moisture and climate conditions on flue-cured tobacco planting in Baoshan tobacco planting area, which was conducive to the quality production of flue-cured tobacco in Baoshan and the formulation of local government's meteorological disaster prevention and reduction strategy.

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Assessment of Impact of Spring Climate Change on Winter Wheat Yield in Longdong Loess Plateau Area

ZHANG Hongni, LI Xiangke, ZHANG Hongfen, ZHANG Tianfeng, ZHOU Zhongwen, CHE Ke

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (11): 78-83. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0413

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To study the impact of spring climate change on winter wheat yield in the representative area of Longdong loess plateau, the Xifeng district of Qingyang city, utilizing the data on the average temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours in spring and winter wheat yield from 1985 to 2020, the characteristics of spring climate change and its impact on winter wheat yield formation were analyzed. The results showed that the spring average temperature anomaly increased significantly with the years, with a rising rate of 1.04℃ per decade, which was much higher than the global and national average levels. The precipitation anomaly percentage showed a fluctuating decreasing trend, with a decreasing rate of 2.72 mm per decade. The sunshine hours anomaly percentage showed an increasing trend, with an increasing rate of 2.45 h per decade. The winter wheat yield showed an increasing trend, with an increasing rate of 470.14 kg/hm² per decade. The match between the climate resources in the critical growth period of winter wheat and its yield formation was reflected by the abundance or scarcity of the climate yield. Over the 36 years, the abundance of production years with good matching accounted for 58%, and the scarcity of production years accounted for 42%. The years with meteorological conditions favorable for winter wheat yield formation accounted for 53%, and unfavorable years accounted for 47%. The research results can guide crop layout and agricultural production in the region according to climate change, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and play positive role in promoting the quality and production of winter wheat.

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Temporal and Spatial Variation of Climatic Production Potential of One Season Rice in Hubei Province in Recent 59 Years

GONG Linxin, YANG Xiaoya, LIU Chunwei, HE Liang

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (11): 84-91. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0417

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In order to study the effects of climate resource changes on climatic production potential of one season rice in Hubei Province, daily surface meteorological data and one season rice growth period data from 28 meteorological stations in Hubei Province during 1961-2019 were used to analyze the spatio-temporal variation of total solar radiation, effective accumulated temperature ≥10 °C and precipitation during the growth period of one season rice. In addition, the stepwise correction method was used to calculate the photosynthesis, light-temperature and climatic production potential of one season rice, and to analyze the spatio-temporal variation rules. The effects of radiation, temperature and precipitation on crop production potential were quantitatively described. The results showed that the solar radiation decreased significantly and the effective accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ increased significantly during the growth period of one season rice in recent 59 years. The distribution of solar radiation and effective accumulated temperature in Hubei Province was high in the north and low in the south. The interannual variation of precipitation showed an insignificant upward trend, and only southwest of the province was the area with high precipitation value. The mean photosynthesis, light-temperature and climatic potential of rice in one season were 20134.63 kg/hm², 19434.79 kg/hm² and 13523.16 kg/hm², respectively. The photosynthesis and light-temperature production potential showed a significant downward trend in most regions, while the climatic potential production showed an insignificant downward trend. The average climatic tendency rates of the three regions were -39.26 kg/(hm²·a), -35.68 kg/(hm²·a) and -15.76 kg/(hm²∙a), respectively. The decrease of radiation resources led to the decrease of climatic production potential of one season rice in the range of -32.87~-104.51 kg/(hm²·a). A few stations were negatively affected by the change of heat and precipitation resources, most of the stations were positively affected to varying degrees, and the comprehensive climate resources effect was negative. The decrease of climatic production potential of rice in Hubei Province was mainly caused by the decrease of radiation.

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Correlation Analysis of Early Flowering Period and Meteorological Factors of Daylily and Forecast Model in Yanchi County

LIU Juanxia, REN Yingping, WU Haiying

Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 2024, 40 (11): 92-96. DOI: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0561

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Based on the observation data of the growth period of daylily in Yanchi County from 2012 to 2021, and the ground meteorological observation data of the national basic meteorological station in Yanchi County during the same period, the correlation between the beginning of flowering period of daylily and meteorological factors was analyzed. The results showed that there was a high correlation between the beginning of flowering of daylily and the sunshine duration from early April to mid-June and the accumulated temperature of 11℃. By using stepwise regression analysis, a multiple regression prediction model was established for the flowering period of daylily from 2012 to 2021, with a high degree of fitting. The beginning flowering time of daylily in 2022-2023 was predicted, and the actual value was different only by 1-2 days. The results show that the forecast model can accurately predict the beginning of flowering time of daylily, meets the business service requirements of characteristic industries, plays a positive role in promoting county-level tourism and local economic development.

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