Assessment Regionalization of Precipitation and Drought Risk in Baoshan Tobacco Planting Area

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.casb2023-0379

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation and temperature data of 11 flue-cured tobacco meteorological stations in Baoshan County from 2015 to 2020, the rainfall risk index and its temporal and spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed during the growth and development of Baoshan flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan Province, and the drought risk assessment model was constructed to provide a basis for the formulation of safe production and risk prevention strategies for Baoshan flue-cured tobacco. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation and drought risk in Baoshan tobacco planting area were analyzed by using geographic information system software ArcGis and relevant mathematical statistics methods such as climate tendency rate and trend coefficient. Using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and drought risk assessment model, drought hazard assessment regionalization in Baoshan tobacco planting area was realized with the help of GIS platform. The results showed that the annual precipitation of Longling and Tengchong ranged from 1060 to 1865.6mm and 804 to 1348.5mm respectively, both of which were more than two times of the normal water requirement of flue-cured tobacco. The Houqiao area in Tengchong had the highest climatic tendency rate, which passed 0.01 significance test and showed a significant increasing trend year by year. The drought risk of flue-cured tobacco in vigorous growth period mainly occurred in central and eastern Baoshan. The drought risk near old city of Shidian and Longyang District was the highest, reaching above the severe risk. The drought risk in the central and eastern parts of Baoshan was below the medium risk, which was conducive to flue-cured tobacco planting. This paper studied and clarified the important influence of moisture and climate conditions on flue-cured tobacco planting in Baoshan tobacco planting area, which was conducive to the quality production of flue-cured tobacco in Baoshan and the formulation of local government's meteorological disaster prevention and reduction strategy.

Key words: Baoshan, flue-cured tobacco, rainfall, drought risk, risk zoning, evaluation

ZHONG Yanhua, JING Yuanshu, WEI Yuan, LI Weitao, JI Mengyu. Assessment Regionalization of Precipitation and Drought Risk in Baoshan Tobacco Planting Area[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin, 2024, 40(11): 112-120.

Figures/Tables 12

References 30

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气象风险因素	气象指标	说明
旺长期干旱	5月下旬—7月上旬平均最长连续无雨日数	旺长期是烤烟水分需求的临界期，该时期水分供应不足会导致烤烟的产量和品质明显下降。
大田期降水	4月下旬—9月上旬累计降水量，降水总量<450 mm， >1000 mm则不适宜烤烟生长。	反应降水强度，降水过多会导致烟田土壤淹水，则烤烟根系活力下降，进而导致产量降低^[14]。

气象风险因素	气象指标	说明
旺长期干旱	5月下旬—7月上旬平均最长连续无雨日数	旺长期是烤烟水分需求的临界期，该时期水分供应不足会导致烤烟的产量和品质明显下降。
大田期降水	4月下旬—9月上旬累计降水量，降水总量<450 mm， >1000 mm则不适宜烤烟生长。	反应降水强度，降水过多会导致烟田土壤淹水，则烤烟根系活力下降，进而导致产量降低^[14]。

因子	危险性指标	说明
致灾因子	5—8月降水距平百率 5—8月连续最长无雨日数	5—8月为保山地区烤烟干旱最为严重的时段
孕灾因子	坡度

因子	危险性指标	说明
致灾因子	5—8月降水距平百率 5—8月连续最长无雨日数	5—8月为保山地区烤烟干旱最为严重的时段
孕灾因子	坡度

目标	因子	指标	权重
烤烟干旱危险性评价指标体系	致灾因子	X₁：5—8月降雨距平百分率	0.2311
	致灾因子	X₂：5—8月最长连续无雨日数	0.6651
	孕灾环境因子	X₃坡度	0.1038