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中国农学通报 ›› 2008, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (11): 448-452.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2008-0567

所属专题: 现代农业发展与乡村振兴 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

农业气象灾害综合评价中权重确定方法的研究

张 星,张春桂,吴菊薪   

  • 收稿日期:2008-07-28 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2008-11-05 发布日期:2008-11-05

Study on the Determination of the Weight of Index about Synthesis Assessment to Agro-meteorological Disasters

Zhang Xing, Zhang Chungui, Wu Juxin   

  • Received:2008-07-28 Revised:1900-01-01 Published:2008-11-05 Online:2008-11-05

摘要: 摘 要 福建省气象灾害种类繁多,但对农业生产的影响程度并不相同,只有通过权重的科学确定才能正确评价农业气象综合灾情。如何确定灾害权重,是进行农业气象灾害综合评价的核心问题。本文将主、客观赋权方法(层次分析法、灰色关联分析和熵权法)应用于福建农业气象灾害综合评价中权重的确定,探讨和比较它们在计算气象灾害权重方面的适用性,并在此基础上提出同时体现主观和客观信息的组合赋权法,得到福建农业气象灾害的组合权重,由大到小依次为低温冻害、旱灾、洪涝、风雹。结果表明,由组合赋权法计算的各灾害指标组合权重相比任何一种主、客观方法都更为合理和可靠。

Abstract: Abstract There are too many meteorological disasters in Fujian Province, but the affected level are not same to agriculture, only through figuring the weight scientifically can to assess synthesis agro-meteorological disaster. How to confirm the weight of disasters is the main question issue in the agro-meteorological disaster integrative assess. The article introduce the traditional methods of the subjective and objective weighting method to calculate the main disasters weight including AHP、grey relational analysis and entropy weight method, comparing their reasonability, and a new combination weighting approach is further put forward which not only embodies the statistical information of sample involved,but also exploits the experience of experts. At last, the combinational weight of agro-meteorological disasters was got. The result showed that the weight calculated by combination weighting approach was more rational and reliable than both of the subjective weighting method and objective weighting method.

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