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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (23): 254-258.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2011-3243

所属专题： 农业气象

• 资源 环境 生态 土壤 气象 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对鲁西南地区气候生产潜力的影响

李瑞英 任崇勇 江晓东   

  • 收稿日期:2011-11-04 修回日期:2011-12-06 出版日期:2012-08-15 发布日期:2012-08-15

The Influence of Climate Change on Climatic Potential Productivity in Southwestern Shandong Province

  • Received:2011-11-04 Revised:2011-12-06 Online:2012-08-15 Published:2012-08-15

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摘要：

为了明确不同气象要素对生产潜力的影响程度，分析影响该地区作物生长的主导限制因素，基于鲁西南地区50年的气象数据，应用线性趋势法分析了研究区的气候变化趋势，运用布达格夫斯基连乘原理估算了研究区的生产潜力。结果表明：平均气温以0.16℃/10 a的速率呈极显著上升，年降水量的变化趋势不显著，以3.0 mm/10 a的平均速率增加，日照时数以112.05 h/10 a的速率呈极显著减少。近50年的光合、光温、光温水生产潜力平均值分别为22.6×104、17.6×104、7.4×104 kg/hm2，其变化趋势分别为：光合、光温生产潜力总体呈减少趋势，而光温水生产潜力的总体减少趋势不明显。温度对气候生产潜力具有负效应，降水对气候生产潜力具有正效应，与温度相比，水分是制约鲁西南地区气候生产潜力的关键气候因子。

关键词: 烤烟, 烤烟, 胞质雄性不育杂种, 经济性状, 遗传效应

Abstract:

In order to clarify the influence of meteorological factors on potential productivity, the key factor was found which restricted crop growth, based on the meteorological data in the last 50 years in southwestern Shandong Province, by using linear-trend method, the climate change trends and potential productivity were analyzed, respectively.The results showed that the temperature increased with a change rate by 0.16℃/10 a, the annual precipitation was no obvious change with a change rate by 3.0 mm/10 a, the annual sunshine duration decreased with a change rate by 112.05h/10a.The photosynthetic, the photo-temperature and the photo-temperature-water potential productivities were estimated, which reached at 22.6×104 kg/hm2, 17.6×104 kg/hm2 and 7.4×104 kg/hm2 respectively. The trend of the climatic potential productivity in the last 50 years showed that the photosynthetic and the photo-temperature potential reduced generally, but the reduced trend of the photo-temperature-water potential was not significant. The temperature had negative effect on potential climate productivity, while precipitation had positive effect, prefer to temperature, the water was the key factor of restricted climatic potential productivity.