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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2012, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (21): 125-130.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2011-3828

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

安徽省粮食产量波动研究

刘顺 黄国勤   

  • 收稿日期:2011-12-19 修回日期:2012-02-14 出版日期:2012-07-25 发布日期:2012-07-25
  • 基金资助:

    国家科技支撑计划项目“江南丘陵区农田循环生产综合技术集成研究与示范”第3专题（编号：2007BAD89B18-03）研究内容

Study on Fluctuation of Food Output in Anhui Province

  • Received:2011-12-19 Revised:2012-02-14 Online:2012-07-25 Published:2012-07-25

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摘要：

安徽省全国重要的粮食主产省。本文依据1978~2010年安徽省粮食产量统计数据，应用波动理论和灰色关联度理论分析安徽省粮食产量波动规律，考察安徽省粮食产量波动的历史过程、数量特征和影响因素。研究结果表明，安徽省粮食产量波动表现为古典型波动；周期较短，长度比较规则；波动幅度总体呈现中度；扩张期略长于收缩期；在粮食产量波动性比较中可以将各周期划分为几个阶段；用灰色关联度分析得出，化肥是粮食增产的重要因素，应该加大力度研究，合理施肥；农作物受灾面积对粮食产量的影响较小。

关键词: 甘蔗基因型, 甘蔗基因型, 低氮胁迫, 影响

Abstract:

Anhui Province is one of the major grain production provinces in China. The paper reviews the history process and quantity characteristic of food output fluctuation in Anhui province and analyses rule of food output applying wave theory and grey relation theory with food production statistic data from 1978 to 2010. The results show that the food output fluctuation showed classical fluctuation, fluctuation period is short and the length is rules, fluctuation showed moderate, is a rather long period of expansion in systolic. By comparison of fluctuation of food output, the period can be divided into several stages. With grey correlation analysis of the influence factors of in Anhui province, Chemical fertilizer is the important factor of food output growth, crops disaster areas have a small impact on food output.