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中国农学通报

中国农学通报 ›› 2013, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (21): 6-11.doi: 10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2012-2934

所属专题： 小麦； 农业气象

• 农学 农业基础科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对小麦生产影响研究进展

商兆堂 姜东 何浪   

  • 收稿日期:2012-08-27 修回日期:2012-09-13 出版日期:2013-07-25 发布日期:2013-07-25
  • 基金资助:
    江苏省气象科研开放基金（重点项目：农业气象灾害性天气模式库）;江苏省气象科研开发项目（里下河湿地麦类高产优质栽培技术研究与应用)

The Research Development About Influence of Climatic Change on Wheat Production

  • Received:2012-08-27 Revised:2012-09-13 Online:2013-07-25 Published:2013-07-25

PDF (PC)

714

摘要： 简述了国内外研究气候变化和评估气象变化对小麦生产影响的主要技术方法。分析表明，气候变化及其对冬小麦生产影响研究，主要是围绕气候变暖这条主线进行的。提出评估气候变化影响的主要研究技术途径是通过气候变化事实趋势外推和气候模式产生未来气候情景，通过冬小麦生长发育与气象条件关系的机理或统计模型，模拟未来气候情景下冬小麦生产状况。分析未来气候情景下与现在正常气候状况下，冬小麦生产状况的主要差异及其引起这种差异的主要气象要素的变化趋势。得出应对气候变化的主要措施是从精确栽培的角度研究冬小麦生产应对气候变化的技术措施，提出防范气候变化风险的管理措施，为保障冬小麦生产安全提供决策依据。

关键词: 动态变化, 动态变化

Abstract: It was briefed on the mainly way at home and abroad for be to research climate change and to evaluate the affect on wheat production by climate change. The analysis showed research on climate change and the affect on wheat production that around the main line of the climate warming outspreads. The reporter raised the main research technology way that produces future climate situation by the climate change facts trend extrapolation and climate patterns, the situation of winter wheat production is simulated on the future climate scenarios, with the mechanism or statistical model of the relationship on the winter wheat growth and meteorological conditions. Analysis on mainly differences of the winter wheat production situation and the trend of the main meteorological elements change about occurrence’s causes in present normal climate conditions and the future climate scenarios. It is gotten a mainly technology measures that study on technology action about dealing with climate change by the direction on precise cultivation, to put forward management measures for preventing climate change risk, in order to ensure the safety of winter wheat production to provide decision basis.