基于CLUE-S模型的崇明县土地利用变化时空动态模拟研究

doi:10.11924/j.issn.1000-6850.2013-1670

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了研究区域不同发展政策和管理方式对土地利用变化的影响，以崇明县三岛为研究对象，选择规划发展模式和历史自然发展模式2种情景，根据历史和现状土地利用数据（1990年、1995年、2000年和2005年），结合城镇道路分布、人口数量、经济水平等驱动因素，构建了崇明县土地利用时空动态变化CLUE-S模型。模拟结果表明，城镇分布、人口密度尤其是劳动力人口密度、经济水平是平原河网地区土地利用格局分布变化的重要驱动因素，构建的CLUE-S模型具有较好的时空动态变化模拟能力。模型模拟出的未来崇明县土地利用图显示，自然发展状态下到2020年崇明县出现大面积低密度建设，农田和水产养殖面积增加，但湿地大量被围垦；规划发展模式下建设用地的点式高密度开发，保留了大量农田、滩涂，同时建设了大面积林地，体现了生态岛建设对滩涂和林地这类高生态服务价值土地利用类型的重视。

关键词: 水杨酸, 水杨酸

Abstract: In order to know the effects of development policies and management style on land use changes, based on the digital land-use imageries of 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005, and other statistical data of the three islands of Chongming County, the key forces driving land use change and controlling land use pattern in Chongming County were found out from such biophysical and socioeconomic factors as urban and rural residential areas, people density especially labor density, economic level and so on. Based on the analysis data, the CLUE-S model suitable for modeling Chongming County was constructed. It was applied to simulate temporal and spatial changes in land use from 2006 to 2020 for the three islands of Chongming County under two scenarios, developed by region programming (scenario 1) and developed by historical trends (scenario 2) respectively. The result showed that: inhabitancy area, farmland and pond would increase from 2005 to 2020 in scenario 2, and the increased area mainly transferred from wetland. In scenario 1, the constructed area showed high density spot distribution. Farmland, wetland would be preserved, and a large of forest also be constructed in scenario 1. It was showed that land use type with high ecological serve value such as wetland and forest was focused on in scenario 1 ‘ecological island’ constructing. By providing a series of scenarios, it revealed risks inherent in certain development strategies which might jeopardize sustainable development of the area.

杨娟蔡永立袁涛. 基于CLUE-S模型的崇明县土地利用变化时空动态模拟研究[J]. 中国农学通报, 2014, 30(11): 258-264.

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